The task of monitoring the Earth for nuclear explosions relies heavily on seismic data to detect, locate, and characterize suspected nuclear tests. Motivated by the need to locate suspected explosions as accurately and precisely as possible, we developed a tomographic model of the compressional wave slowness in the Earth’s mantle with primary focus on the accuracy and precision of travel-time predictions for P and Pn ray paths through the model. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties are obtained by computing the full 3D model covariance matrix and then integrating slowness variance and covariance along ray paths from source to receiver. Path-dependent travel-time prediction uncertainties reflect the amount of seismic data that was used in tomography with very low values for paths represented by abundant data in the tomographic data set and very high values for paths through portions of the model that were poorly sampled by the tomography data set. The pattern of travel-time prediction uncertainty is a direct result of the off-diagonal terms of the model covariance matrix and underscores the importance of incorporating the full model covariance matrix in the determination of travel-time prediction uncertainty. The computed pattern of uncertainty differs significantly from that of 1D distance-dependent traveltime uncertainties computed using traditional methods, which are only appropriate for use with travel times computed through 1D velocity models.
Since May 2010, we have been recording continuous seismic data at Sandia's FACT site. The collected signals provide us with a realistic archive for testing algorithms under development for local monitoring of explosive testing. Numerous small explosive tests are routinely conducted around Kirtland AFB by different organizations. Our goal is to identify effective methods for distinguishing these events from normal daily activity on and near the base, such as vehicles, aircraft, and storms. In this report, we describe the recording system, and present some observations of the varying ambient noise conditions at FACT. We present examples of various common, non-explosive, sources. Next we show signals from several small explosions, and discuss their characteristic features.
The relationship between explosive yield and seismic magnitude has been extensively studied for underground nuclear tests larger than about 1 kt. For monitoring smaller tests over local ranges (within 200 km), we need to know whether the available formulas can be extrapolated to much lower yields. Here, we review published information on amplitude decay with distance, and on the seismic magnitudes of industrial blasts and refraction explosions in the western U. S. Next we measure the magnitudes of some similar shots in the northeast. We find that local magnitudes ML of small, contained explosions are reasonably consistent with the magnitude-yield formulas developed for nuclear tests. These results are useful for estimating the detection performance of proposed local seismic networks.