This report summarizes important nuances in local water concerns and potential climate impacts that could influence the roll-out of technologies associated with energy transitions. To understand how water and climate dynamics could be influencing these activities for three countries.
An existing shared risk framework designed for assessing and comparing threat-based risks to water utilities is being extended to incorporate electric power. An important differentiating characteristic of this framework is the use of a system-centric rather than an asset-centric approach. This approach allows anonymous sharing of results and enables comparison of assessments across different utilities within an infrastructure sector. By allowing utility owners to compare their assessments with others, they can improve their self-assessments and identification of "unknown unknowns". This document provides an approach for extension of the framework to electric power, including treatment of dependencies and interdependencies. The systems, threats, and mathematical description of associated risks used in a prototype framework are provided. The method is extensible so that additional infrastructure sectors can be incorporated. Preliminary results for a proof of concept calculation are provided.
Schwering, Paul C.; Lowry, Thomas S.; Hinz, Nicholas; Matson, Gabe; Sabin, Andrew; Blake, Kelly; Zimmerman, Jade; Sewell, Steven; Cumming, William
The Basin & Range Investigations for Developing Geothermal Energy (BRIDGE) Project kicked off in the Autumn of 2021. The Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) funded BRIDGE as part of a broader GTO initiative to advance the identification and development of hidden, or “blind”, geothermal energy resources in the Basin and Range Province (Basin & Range) of the western USA. The BRIDGE Team is a collaboration being led by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, the US Navy Geothermal Program Office, and others that will contribute to various stages of the project. The focus of this project is on Western Nevada with areas of interest, identified chiefly from the prior Nevada Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) study, located primarily in Churchill and Mineral Counties including lands managed by the Department of Defense (DOD). The first stage of BRIDGE is focused on reconnaissance of PFA targets that are suspected or known to be associated with hidden geothermal resources on DOD and surrounding lands. Helicopter-borne transient electromagnetism (HTEM) surveying is being used in a novel conceptual approach for optimizing shallow and deep well targeting in Basin & Range geothermal exploration. This reconnaissance phase is part of the overall BRIDGE workflow: 1. Assess the pre-survey likelihood of geothermal systems in the study area based on PFA reviews and a reanalysis of existing information to constrain subsurface temperature, structure, hydrology, and thermal manifestations. 2. Design and execute HTEM resistivity surveying to image the depth to the low resistivity and low permeability clay cap, within which a thermally conductive (linear) temperature gradient could be targeted for drilling, and potentially image the underlying higher resistivity associated with shallow aquifers hosting outflows from deeper geothermal systems. 3. Drill temperature gradient (TG) wells that penetrate a thick enough section of the clay cap detected by HTEM surveying to provide a linear thermal gradient that could be reliably extrapolated to the base of the cap. 4. In areas where the TG wells detected a prospective temperature gradient but where the HTEM survey did not penetrate to the base of the cap, conduct surface magnetotelluric (MT) resistivity surveys to image the base of the cap to identify the depth to which the linear TG well gradient could be reliably extrapolated. 5. On the most prospective target(s), drill at least one testable slim hole well to discover the resource associated with the interpreted geothermal reservoir upflow source. The first stage of the project and the second stage HTEM survey have been completed. Preliminary results are being analyzed with respect to potential TG targets and plans for followup surveys, geophysical joint inversion, conceptual model development, and interpretation.
There are an estimated 48,745 wells producing oil or gas in New Mexico as of August 8, 2020 and with advances in drilling and oil recovery technology the use of hydraulic fracturing has become more commonplace. With a typical well requiring 1.5 to 16 million gallons of water, there is an increased demand for water in the Permian Basin and concern over the regions ability to meet this demand. This report is an addendum to the 2018 report Water Resource Assessment in the New Mexico Permian Basin (SAND2018-12018) to monitor baseline water level and chemistry data established in the original report. Results from this addendum can be used to further understand regional water supply and demands and aid in the BLMs mission of sustainably meeting the needs of water users while protecting human and environmental health.
For over 50 years, performance assessment (PA) has been used throughout the world to inform decisions concerning the storage and management of radioactive waste. Some of the applications of PA include environmental assessments of nuclear disposal sites, development of methodologies and regulations for the long-term storage of nuclear waste, regulatory assessment for site selection and licensing at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and Yucca Mountain, and safety assessments for nuclear reactors. PA begins with asking the following questions: 1) What can happen? 2) How likely is it to happen? 3) What are the consequences when it does happen? and 4) What is the uncertainty of the first three questions? This work presents an approach for applying PA methodologies to geothermal resource evaluation that is adaptable and conformable to all phases of geothermal energy production. It provides a consistent and transparent framework for organizing data and information in a manner that supports decision making and accounts for uncertainties. The process provides a better understanding of the underlying risks that can jeopardize the development and/or performance of a geothermal project and identifies the best pathways for reducing or eliminating those risks. The approach is demonstrated through hypothetical examples of both hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).
Significant costs can be related to losing circulation of drilling fluids in geothermal drilling. This paper is the second of four case studies of geothermal fields operated by Ormat Technologies, directed at forming a comprehensive strategy to characterize and address lost circulation in varying conditions, and examines the geologic context of and common responses to lost circulation in the loosely consolidated, shallow sedimentary reservoir of the Don A. Campbell geothermal field. The Don A. Campbell Geothermal Field is in the SW portion of Gabbs Valley in NV, along the eastern margin of the Central Walker Lane shear zone. The reservoir here is shallow and primarily in the basin fill, which is hydrothermally altered along fault zones. Wells in this reservoir are highly productive (250-315 L/s) with moderate temperatures (120-125 °C) and were drilled to an average depth of ~1500 ft (450 m). Lost circulation is frequently reported beginning at depths of about 800 ft, slightly shallower than the average casing shoe depth of 900- 1000 ft (275-305 m). Reports of lost circulation frequently coincide with drilling through silicified basin fill. Strategies to address lost circulation differ above and below the cased interval; bentonite chips were used at shallow depths and aerated, gelled drilling fluids were used in the production intervals. Further study of this and other areas will contribute to developing a systematic understanding of geologic contextual-informed lost circulation mitigation strategies.
Significant costs can be related to losing circulation of drilling fluids in geothermal drilling. This paper is the second of four case studies of geothermal fields operated by Ormat Technologies, directed at forming a comprehensive strategy to characterize and address lost circulation in varying conditions, and examines the geologic context of and common responses to lost circulation in the loosely consolidated, shallow sedimentary reservoir of the Don A. Campbell geothermal field. The Don A. Campbell Geothermal Field is in the SW portion of Gabbs Valley in NV, along the eastern margin of the Central Walker Lane shear zone. The reservoir here is shallow and primarily in the basin fill, which is hydrothermally altered along fault zones. Wells in this reservoir are highly productive (250-315 L/s) with moderate temperatures (120-125 °C) and were drilled to an average depth of ~1500 ft (450 m). Lost circulation is frequently reported beginning at depths of about 800 ft, slightly shallower than the average casing shoe depth of 900- 1000 ft (275-305 m). Reports of lost circulation frequently coincide with drilling through silicified basin fill. Strategies to address lost circulation differ above and below the cased interval; bentonite chips were used at shallow depths and aerated, gelled drilling fluids were used in the production intervals. Further study of this and other areas will contribute to developing a systematic understanding of geologic contextual-informed lost circulation mitigation strategies.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
Lowry, Thomas S.; Ayling, Bridget; Hinz, Nicholas; Sabin, Andrew; Arguello, Raymond; Blake, Kelly; Tiedeman, Andy
The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The report provides simplified algorithms with which anyone on any country can determine their risk from climate change and to include in resilience evaluations. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in fiscal year (FY) 2019 associated with FY19 Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
Risk assessment plays a vital role in protecting our nation's critical infrastructure. Traditionally, such assessments have been conducted as a singular activity confined to the boarders of a particular asset or utility with little external sharing of information. In contrast other domains, e.g., disaster preparedness, cyber security, food-borne hazards, have demonstrated the benefits of sharing data, experiences and lessons learned in assessing and managing risk. Here we explore the concept of a Shared Risk Framework (SRF) in the context of critical infrastructure assessments. In this exploration, key elements of an SRF are introduced and initial instantiations demonstrated by way of three water utility assessments. Results from these three demonstrations were then combined with results from four other risk assessments developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts. Through this comparison we were able to explore potential challenges and benefits from implementation of a SRF. Challenges included both the capacity and interest of local utilities to conduct a shared risk assessment; particularly, wide scale adoption of any SRF will require a clear demonstration that such an effort supports the basic mission of the utility, adds benefit to the utility, and protects utility data from unintended access or misuse. In terms of benefits, anonymous sharing of results among utilities could provide the added benefits of recognizing and correcting bias; identifying ‘unknown, unknowns’; assisting self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility; and providing a basis for treating shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Depat ment of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (OFCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling (DOE 2011, Table 6). These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) work package, which is charged with developing a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific GDSA activities in fiscal year 2018 (FY 2018) toward the development of GDSA Framework, an enhanced disposal system modeling and analysis capability for geologic disposal of nuclear waste. GDSA Framework employs the PFLOTRAN thermal-hydrologic-chemical multiphysics code (Hammond et al. 2011a; Lichtner and Hammond 2012) and the Dakota uncertainty sampling and propagation code (Adams et al. 2012; Adams et al. 2013). Each code is designed for massivelyparallel processing in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment. Multi-physics representations in PFLOTRAN are used to simulate various coupled processes including heat flow, fluid flow, waste dissolution, radionuclide release, radionuclide decay and ingrowth, precipitation and dissolution of secondary phases, and radionuclide transport through engineered barriers and natural geologic barriers to the biosphere. Dakota is used to generate sets of representative realizations and to analyze parameter sensitivity.
Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction. Within the New Mexico Permian Basin, water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), resulting in an increase to the regional water demand of over 5000 acre-feet per year. This rising demand is creating concern for the regions ability to meet the demand in a manner that fulfills BLM's role of protecting human health and the environment while sustainably meeting the needs of various of water users in the region. This report documents a study that establishes a water-level and chemistry baseline and develops a modeling tool to aid the BLM in understanding the regional water supply dynamics under different management, policy, and growth scenarios and to pre-emptively identify risks to water sustainability.
This report documents the key findings from the Reservoir Maintenance and Development (RM&D) Task of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE), Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) Geothermal Vision Study (GeoVision Study). The GeoVision Study had the objective of conduc ting analyses of future geothermal growth based on sets of current and future geothermal technology developments. The RM&D Task is one of seven tasks within the GeoVision Study with the others being, Exploration and Confirmation, Potential to Penetration, Institutional Market Barriers, Environmental and Social Impacts, Thermal Applications, and Hybrid Systems. The full set of findings and the details of the GeoVision Study can be found in the final GeoVision Study report on the DOE-GTO website. As applied here, RM&D refers to the activities associated with developing, exploiting, and maintaining a known geothermal resource. It assumes that the site has already been vetted and that the resource has been evaluated to be of sufficient quality to move towards full-scale development. It also assumes that the resource is to be developed for power generation, as opposed to low-temperature or direct use applications. This document presents the key factors influencing RM&D from both a technological and operational standpoint and provides a baseline of its current state. It also looks forward to describe areas of research and development that must be pursued if the development geothermal energy is to reach its full potential.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.