Publications

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The same water that makes Norfolk, Virginia an ideal home for international ports and naval installations is also increasingly flooding large parts of the city and the surrounding Hampton Roads region. This report describes the development of a process to analyze the resilience of urban regions to the shocks and stresses that those cities care about, and applies this process to address flooding in Norfolk and Hampton Roads. The goal is to provide Norfolk city officials and regional asset owners with actionable information to plan the infrastructure improvements that will most greatly enhance the regions resilience to flooding. Results suggest that there are wide - ranging impacts of a major acute flooding event beyond the Hampton Roads region. A single four - day, 100 - year flood event in Hampton Roads would cause on the order of $355 - 606 million in detrimental impacts to global production, with greater impacts occurring in the future as net sea levels rise. This report highlights the infrastructure behaviors, interdependencies, and the economic analyses that determine these impacts.

The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has generated tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over control of the Nile River in Northern Africa. However, tensions within Egypt have also been pronounced, leading up to and following the Arab Spring uprising of 2011. This study used the Behavior Influence Assessment (BIA) framework to simulate a dynamic hypothesis regarding how tensions within Egypt may evolve given the impacts of the GERD. Primarily, we addressed the interplay between four parties over an upcoming ten-year period: the Egyptian Regime, the Military-Elite, the Militant population, and the non-Militant population. The core tenant of the hypothesis is that rising food prices was a strong driver to the unrest leading up to the Arab Spring events and that this same type of economic stress could be driven by the GERD—albeit with different political undertones. Namely, the GERD offers the Regime a target for inciting nationalism, and while this may buy the regime time to fix the underlying economic impacts, ultimately there exists a tipping point beyond which exponentially increasing unrest is unavoidable without implementing strong measures, such as state militarization.

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Sustainability is a critical national security issue for the U.S. and other nations. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is already a global leader in sustainability science and technology (SS&T) as documented in this report. This report documents the ongoing work conducted this year as part of the Sustainability Innovation Foundry (SIF). The efforts of the SIF support Sandia's national and international security missions related to sustainability and resilience revolving around energy use, water use, and materials, both on site at Sandia and externally. The SIF leverages existing Sandia research and development (R&D) in sustainability science and technology to support new solutions to complex problems. The SIF also builds on existing Sandia initiatives to support transformation of Sandia into a fully sustainable entity in terms of materials, energy, and water use. In the long term, the SIF will demonstrate the efficacy of sustainability technology developed at Sandia through prototyping and test bed approaches and will provide a common platform for support of solutions to the complex problems surrounding sustainability. Highlights from this year include the Sustainability Idea Challenge, improvements in facilities energy use, lectures and presentations from relevant experts in sustainability [Dr. Barry Hughes, University of Denver], and significant development of the Institutional Transformation (IX) modeling tools to support evaluation of proposed modifications to the SNL infrastructure to realize energy savings.

This report presents the results from the hydrological, ecological, and renewable energy assessments conducted by Sandia National Laboratories at the ByWater Lakes site in Espanola, New Mexico for ByWater Recreation LLC and Avanyu Energy Services through the New Mexico small business assistance (NMSBA) program. Sandia's role was to assess the viability and provide perspective for enhancing the site to take advantage of renewable energy resources, improve and sustain the natural systems, develop a profitable operation, and provide an asset for the local community. Integral to this work was the identification the pertinent data and data gaps as well as making general observations about the potential issues and concerns that may arise from further developing the site. This report is informational only with no consideration with regards to the business feasibility of the various options that ByWater and Avanyu may be pursuing.

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A dynamic assessment model has been developed for evaluating the potential algal biomass and extracted biocrude productivity and costs, using nutrient and water resources available from waste streams in four regions of Canada (western British Columbia, Alberta oil fields, southern Ontario, and Nova Scotia). The purpose of this model is to help identify optimal locations in Canada for algae cultivation and biofuel production. The model uses spatially referenced data across the four regions for nitrogen and phosphorous loads in municipal wastewaters, and CO{sub 2} in exhaust streams from a variety of large industrial sources. Other data inputs include land cover, and solar insolation. Model users can develop estimates of resource potential by manipulating model assumptions in a graphic user interface, and updated results are viewed in real time. Resource potential by location can be viewed in terms of biomass production potential, potential CO{sub 2} fixed, biocrude production potential, and area required. The cost of producing algal biomass can be estimated using an approximation of the distance to move CO{sub 2} and water to the desired land parcel and an estimation of capital and operating costs for a theoretical open pond facility. Preliminary results suggest that in most cases, the CO{sub 2} resource is plentiful compared to other necessary nutrients (especially nitrogen), and that siting and prospects for successful large-scale algae cultivation efforts in Canada will be driven by availability of those other nutrients and the efficiency with which they can be used and re-used. Cost curves based on optimal possible siting of an open pond system are shown. The cost of energy for maintaining optimal growth temperatures is not considered in this effort, and additional research in this area, which has not been well studied at these latitudes, will be important in refining the costs of algal biomass production. The model will be used by NRC-IMB Canada to identify promising locations for both demonstration and pilot-scale algal cultivation projects, including the production potential of using wastewater, and potential land use considerations.

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In 2011 the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity embarked on a comprehensive program to assist our Nation's three primary electric interconnections with long term transmission planning. Given the growing concern over water resources in the western U.S. the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) requested assistance with integrating water resource considerations into their broader electric transmission planning. The result is a project with three overarching objectives: (1) Develop an integrated Energy-Water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners in the Western Interconnection to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning. (2) Pursue the formulation and development of the Energy-Water DSS through a strongly collaborative process between the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), Western Governors Association (WGA), the Western States Water Council (WSWC) and their associated stakeholder teams. (3) Exercise the Energy-Water DSS to investigate water stress implications of the transmission planning scenarios put forward by WECC, WGA, and WSWC. The foundation for the Energy-Water DSS is Sandia National Laboratories Energy-Power-Water Simulation (EPWSim) model (Tidwell et al. 2009). The modeling framework targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. This framework provides an interactive environment to explore trade-offs, and 'best' alternatives among a broad list of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support framework is formulated in a modular architecture, facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and scales (e.g., state, county, watershed, interconnection). An interactive interface allows direct control of the model and access to real-time results displayed as charts, graphs and maps. The framework currently supports modules for calculating water withdrawal and consumption for current and planned electric power generation; projected water demand from competing use sectors; and, surface and groundwater availability. WECC's long range planning is organized according to two target planning horizons, a 10-year and a 20-year. This study supports WECC in the 10-year planning endeavor. In this case the water implications associated with four of WECC's alternative future study cases (described below) are calculated and reported. In future phases of planning we will work with WECC to craft study cases that aim to reduce the thermoelectric footprint of the interconnection and/or limit production in the most water stressed regions of the West.

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