Publications

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The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

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Effective defense against chemical and biological threats requires an "end-to-end" strategy that encompasses the entire problem space, from threat assessment and target hardening to response planning and recovery. A key element of the strategy is the definition of appropriate system requirements for surveillance and detection of threat agents. Our end-toend approach to venue chem/bio defense is captured in the Facilities Weapons of Mass Destruction Decision Analysis Capability (FacDAC), an integrated system-of-systems toolset that can be used to generate requirements across all stages of detector development. For example, in the early stage of detector development the approach can be used to develop performance targets (e.g., sensitivity, selectivity, false positive rate) to provide guidance on what technologies to pursue. In the development phase, after a detector technology has been selected, the approach can aid in determining performance trade-offs and down-selection of competing technologies. During the application stage, the approach can be employed to design optimal defensive architectures that make the best use of available technology to maximize system performance. This presentation will discuss the end-to-end approach to defining detector requirements and demonstrate the capabilities of the FacDAC toolset using examples from a number of studies for the Department of Homeland Security. © 2009 SPIE.

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