Publications

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Deep Learning computer vision models require many thousands of properly labelled images for training, which is especially challenging for safeguards and nonproliferation, given that safeguards-relevant images are typically rare due to the sensitivity and limited availability of the technologies. Creating relevant images through real-world staging is costly and limiting in scope. Expert-labeling is expensive, time consuming, and error prone. We aim to develop a data set of both realworld and synthetic images that are relevant to the nuclear safeguards domain that can be used to support multiple data science research questions. In the process of developing this data, we aim to develop a novel workflow to validate synthetic images using machine learning explainability methods, testing among multiple computer vision algorithms, and iterative synthetic data rendering. We will deliver one million images – both real-world and synthetically rendered – of two types uranium storage and transportation containers with labelled ground truth and associated adversarial examples.

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As the ability to collect and store data grows, so does the need to efficiently analyze that data. As human-machine teams that use machine learning (ML) algorithms as a way to inform human decision-making grow in popularity it becomes increasingly critical to understand the optimal methods of implementing algorithm assisted search. In order to better understand how algorithm confidence values associated with object identification can influence participant accuracy and response times during a visual search task, we compared models that provided appropriate confidence, random confidence, and no confidence, as well as a model biased toward over confidence and a model biased toward under confidence. Results indicate that randomized confidence is likely harmful to performance while non-random confidence values are likely better than no confidence value for maintaining accuracy over time. Providing participants with appropriate confidence values did not seem to benefit performance any more than providing participants with under or over confident models.

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Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) currently provide state-of-the-art performance on image classification and object detection tasks, and there are many global security mission areas where such models could be extremely useful. Crucially, the success of these models is driven in large part by the widespread availability of high-quality open source data sets such as Image Net, Common Objects in Context (COCO), and KITTI, which contain millions of images with thousands of unique labels. However, global security relevant objects-of-interest can be difficult to obtain: relevant events are low frequency and high consequence; the content of relevant images is sensitive; and adversaries and proliferators seek to obscure their activities. For these cases where exemplar data is hard to come-by, even fine-tuning an existing model with available data can be effectively impossible. Recent work demonstrated that models can be trained using a combination of real-world and synthetic images generated from 3D representations; that such models can exceed the performance of models trained using real-world data alone; and that the generated images need not be perfectly realistic (Tremblay, et al., 2018). However, this approach still required hundreds to thousands of real-world images for training and fine tuning, which for sparse, global security-relevant datasets can be an unrealistic hurdle. In this research, we validate the performance and behavior of DCNN models as we drive the number of real-world images used for training object detection tasks down to a minimal set. We perform multiple experiments to identify the best approach to train DCNNs from an extremely small set of real-world images. In doing so, we: Develop state-of-the-art, parameterized 3D models based on real-world images and sample from their parameters to increase the variance in synthetic image training data; Use machine learning explainability techniques to highlight and correct through targeted training the biases that result from training using completely synthetic images; and Validate our results by comparing the performance of the models trained on synthetic data to one another, and to a control model created by fine-tuning an existing ImageNet-trained model with a limited number (hundreds) of real-world images.

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Societal verification-the use of data produced by the public to support confirmation that a state is in compliance with its nonproliferation or arms control obligations-is a concept as old as nonproliferation and arms control proposals themselves. With the tremendous growth in access to the Internet, and its accompanying public generation of and access to data, the concept of societal verification has undergone a recent resurgence in popularity. This chapter explores societal verification through two mechanisms of collecting and analyzing societallyproduced data: mobilization and observation. It describes current applications and research in each area before providing an overview of challenges and considerations that must be addressed in order to bring societally-produced data into an official verification regime. The chapter concludes by emphasizing that the role of societal verification, if any, in nonproliferation and arms control will supplement rather than supplant traditional verification means.

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