An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems Using Deep Ensembles
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Journal of Nuclear Materials Management
Security assessments support decision-makers' ability to evaluate current capabilities of high consequence facilities (HCF) to respond to possible attacks. However, increasing complexity of today's operational environment requires a critical review of traditional approaches to ensure that implemented assessments are providing relevant and timely insights into security of HCFs. Using interviews and focus groups with diverse subject matter experts (SMEs), this study evaluated the current state of security assessments and identified opportunities to achieve a more "ideal" state. The SME-based data underscored the value of a systems approach for understanding the impacts of changing operational designs and contexts (as well as cultural influences) on security to address methodological shortcomings of traditional assessment processes. These findings can be used to inform the development of new approaches to HCF security assessments that are able to more accurately reflect changing operational environments and effectively mitigate concerns arising from new adversary capabilities.
IEEE Vehicular Technology Conference
Robust and accurate unmanned aircraft system (UAS) detection is pivotal in restricted air spaces. Deep learning-based object detection has been proposed to identify the presence of UASs, but it introduces two key challenges. Specifically, deep learning detectors (i) provide point estimates at test-time with no associated measure of uncertainty, and (ii) easily trigger false positive detections for birds and other aerial wildlife. In this work, we propose a novel detection algorithm, which is capable of providing uncertainty quantification (UQ) metrics at test time while also significantly reducing the false positive rate on natural wildlife. Our proposed method consists of using an ensemble of object detectors to generate a distributive estimate of each input prediction. In addition, we measure multiple UQ-based scoring metrics for each input to further validate our model's effectiveness. Through evaluation on our custom generated UAS dataset, consisting of images captured from deployed cameras, we show that our model provides robust UQ estimates, low false positive rates on wildlife, and significantly improved error rates over singular deep learning detection models.
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Proceedings - International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology
Performance measures commonly used in systems security engineering tend to be static, linear, and have limited utility in addressing challenges to security performance from increasingly complex risk environments, adversary innovation, and disruptive technologies. Leveraging key concepts from resilience science offers an opportunity to advance next-generation systems security engineering to better describe the complexities, dynamism, and non-linearity observed in security performance—particularly in response to these challenges. This article introduces a multilayer network model and modified Continuous Time Markov Chain model that explicitly captures interdependencies in systems security engineering. The results and insights from a multilayer network model of security for a hypothetical nuclear power plant introduce how network-based metrics can incorporate resilience concepts into performance metrics for next generation systems security engineering.
Springer Proceedings in Complexity
Protecting high consequence facilities (HCF) from malicious attacks is challenged by today’s increasingly complex, multi-faceted, and interdependent operational environments and threat domains. Building on current approaches, insights from complex systems and network science can better incorporate multidomain interactions observed in HCF security operations. These observations and qualitative HCF security expert data support invoking a multilayer modeling approach for HCF security to shift from a “reactive” to a “proactive” paradigm that better explores HCF security dynamics and resilience not captured in traditional approaches. After exploring these multi-domain interactions, this paper introduces how systems theory and network science insights can be leveraged to describe HCF security as complex, interdependent multilayer directed networks. A hypothetical example then demonstrates the utility of such an approach, followed by a discussion on key insights and implications of incorporating multilayer network analytical performance measures into HCF security.
Systems Security Symposium, SSS 2020 - Conference Proceedings
Existing security models are highly linear and fail to capture the rich interactions that occur across security technology, infrastructure, cybersecurity, and human/organizational components. In this work, we will leverage insights from resilience science, complex system theory, and network theory to develop a next-generation security model based on these interactions to address challenges in complex, nonlinear risk environments and against innovative and disruptive technologies. Developing such a model is a key step forward toward a dynamic security paradigm (e.g., shifting from detection to anticipation) and establishing the foundation for designing next-generation physical security systems against evolving threats in uncontrolled or contested operational environments.
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Optical Engineering
Many optical systems are used for specific tasks such as classification. Of these systems, the majority are designed to maximize image quality for human observers. However, machine learning classification algorithms do not require the same data representation used by humans. We investigate the compressive optical systems optimized for a specific machine sensing task. Two compressive optical architectures are examined: an array of prisms and neutral density filters where each prism and neutral density filter pair realizes one datum from an optimized compressive sensing matrix, and another architecture using conventional optics to image the aperture onto the detector, a prism array to divide the aperture, and a pixelated attenuation mask in the intermediate image plane. We discuss the design, simulation, and trade-offs of these systems built for compressed classification of the Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology dataset. Both architectures achieve classification accuracies within 3% of the optimized sensing matrix for compression ranging from 98.85% to 99.87%. The performance of the systems with 98.85% compression were between an F / 2 and F / 4 imaging system in the presence of noise.
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