Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among agents. However, agent-based models are often not developed explicitly for prediction, and are generally not validated as such. We therefore present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework, in which individual behavior model is learned by machine learning techniques, deployed in multi-agent systems and validated using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We apply the framework to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county and demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends and provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. Meanwhile, we construct a second agent-based model, with its parameters calibrated based on mean square error of its fitted aggregate adoption to the ground truth. Our result suggests that our data-driven agent-based approach based on maximum likelihood estimation substantially outperforms the calibrated agent-based model. Seeing advantage over the state-of-the-art modeling methodology, we utilize our agent-based model to aid search for potentially better incentive structures aimed at spurring more solar adoption. Although the impact of solar subsidies is rather limited in our case, our study still reveals that a simple heuristic search algorithm can lead to more effective incentive plans than the current solar subsidies in San Diego County and a previously explored structure. Finally, we examine an exclusive class of policies that gives away free systems to low-income households, which are shown significantly more efficacious than any incentive-based policies we have analyzed to date.
TAC/AA (ad auction game) provides a forum for research into strategic bidding in keyword auctions to try out their ideas in an independently simulated setting. We describe an agent that successfully competed in the TAC/AA game, showing in the process how to operationalize game theoretic analysis to develop a very simple, yet highly competent agent. Specifically, we use simulation-based game theory to approximate equilibria in a restricted bidding strategy space, assess their robustness in a normative sense, and argue for relative plausibility of equilibria based on an analogy to a common agent design methodology. Finally, we offer some evidence for the efficacy of equilibrium predictions based on TAC/AA tournament data.
The goal of this research was to investigate the potential for employing dynamic, decentralized software architectures to achieve reliability in future high-performance computing platforms. These architectures, inspired by peer-to-peer networks such as botnets that already scale to millions of unreliable nodes, hold promise for enabling scientific applications to run usefully on next-generation exascale platforms ({approx} 10{sup 18} operations per second). Traditional parallel programming techniques suffer rapid deterioration of performance scaling with growing platform size, as the work of coping with increasingly frequent failures dominates over useful computation. Our studies suggest that new architectures, in which failures are treated as ubiquitous and their effects are considered as simply another controllable source of error in a scientific computation, can remove such obstacles to exascale computing for certain applications. We have developed a simulation framework, as well as a preliminary implementation in a large-scale emulation environment, for exploration of these 'fault-oblivious computing' approaches. High-performance computing (HPC) faces a fundamental problem of increasing total component failure rates due to increasing system sizes, which threaten to degrade system reliability to an unusable level by the time the exascale range is reached ({approx} 10{sup 18} operations per second, requiring of order millions of processors). As computer scientists seek a way to scale system software for next-generation exascale machines, it is worth considering peer-to-peer (P2P) architectures that are already capable of supporting 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7} unreliable nodes. Exascale platforms will require a different way of looking at systems and software because the machine will likely not be available in its entirety for a meaningful execution time. Realistic estimates of failure rates range from a few times per day to more than once per hour for these platforms. P2P architectures give us a starting point for crafting applications and system software for exascale. In the context of the Internet, P2P applications (e.g., file sharing, botnets) have already solved this problem for 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7} nodes. Usually based on a fractal distributed hash table structure, these systems have proven robust in practice to constant and unpredictable outages, failures, and even subversion. For example, a recent estimate of botnet turnover (i.e., the number of machines leaving and joining) is about 11% per week. Nonetheless, P2P networks remain effective despite these failures: The Conficker botnet has grown to {approx} 5 x 10{sup 6} peers. Unlike today's system software and applications, those for next-generation exascale machines cannot assume a static structure and, to be scalable over millions of nodes, must be decentralized. P2P architectures achieve both, and provide a promising model for 'fault-oblivious computing'. This project aimed to study the dynamics of P2P networks in the context of a design for exascale systems and applications. Having no single point of failure, the most successful P2P architectures are adaptive and self-organizing. While there has been some previous work applying P2P to message passing, little attention has been previously paid to the tightly coupled exascale domain. Typically, the per-node footprint of P2P systems is small, making them ideal for HPC use. The implementation on each peer node cooperates en masse to 'heal' disruptions rather than relying on a controlling 'master' node. Understanding this cooperative behavior from a complex systems viewpoint is essential to predicting useful environments for the inextricably unreliable exascale platforms of the future. We sought to obtain theoretical insight into the stability and large-scale behavior of candidate architectures, and to work toward leveraging Sandia's Emulytics platform to test promising candidates in a realistic (ultimately {ge} 10{sup 7} nodes) setting. Our primary example applications are drawn from linear algebra: a Jacobi relaxation solver for the heat equation, and the closely related technique of value iteration in optimization. We aimed to apply P2P concepts in designing implementations capable of surviving an unreliable machine of 10{sup 6} nodes.
