Publications

Our society is increasingly reliant on systems and interoperating collections of systems, known as systems of systems (SoS). These SoS are often subject to changing missions (e.g., nation- building, arms-control treaties), threats (e.g., asymmetric warfare, terrorism), natural environments (e.g., climate, weather, natural disasters) and budgets. How well can SoS adapt to these types of dynamic conditions? This report details the results of a three year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at developing metrics and methodologies for quantifying the adaptability of systems and SoS. Work products include: derivation of a set of adaptability metrics, a method for combining the metrics into a system of systems adaptability index (SoSAI) used to compare adaptability of SoS designs, development of a prototype dynamic SoS (proto-dSoS) simulation environment which provides the ability to investigate the validity of the adaptability metric set, and two test cases that evaluate the usefulness of a subset of the adaptability metrics and SoSAI for distinguishing good from poor adaptability in a SoS. Intellectual property results include three patents pending: A Method For Quantifying Relative System Adaptability, Method for Evaluating System Performance, and A Method for Determining Systems Re-Tasking.

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In a total-system performance assessment (TSPA), uncertainty in the performance measure (e.g., radiation dose) is estimated by first estimating the uncertain y in the input variables and then propagating that uncertain y through the model system by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This paper discusses uncertainty in surface infiltration, which is one of the input variables needed for performance assessments of the Yucca Mountain site. Infiltration has been represented in recent TSPA simulations by using three discrete infiltration maps (i.e., spatial distributions of infiltration) for each climate state in the calculation of unsaturated-zone flow and transport. A detailed uncertainty analysis of infiltration was carried out for two purposes: to better quantify the possible range of infiltration, and to determine what probability weights should be assigned to the three infiltration cases in a TSPA simulation. The remainder of this paper presents the approach and methodology for the uncertainty analysis, along with a discussion of the results.

The abstraction model used for seepage into emplacement drifts in recent TSPA simulations has been presented. This model contributes to the calculation of the quantity of water that might contact waste if it is emplaced at Yucca Mountain. Other important components of that calculation not discussed here include models for climate, infiltration, unsaturated-zone flow, and thermohydrology; drip-shield and waste-package degradation; and flow around and through the drip shield and waste package. The seepage abstraction model is stochastic because predictions of seepage are necessarily quite uncertain. The model provides uncertainty distributions for seepage fraction fraction of waste-package locations flow rate as functions of percolation flux. In addition, effects of intermediate-scale flow with seepage and seep channeling are included by means of a flow-focusing factor, which is also represented by an uncertainty distribution.

Several effects of seismic activity on the release of radionuclides from a potential repository at Yucca Mountain are quantified. Future seismic events are predicted using data from the seismic hazard analysis conducted for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Phenomenological models are developed, including rockfall (thermal-mechanical and seismic) in unbackfilled emplacement drifts, container damage caused by fault displacement within the repository, and flow-path chance caused by changes in strain. Using the composite-porosity flow model (relatively large-scale, regular percolation), seismic events show little effect on total-system releases; using the weeps flow model (episodic pulses of flow in locally saturated fractures), container damage and flow-path changes cause over an order of magnitude increase in releases. In separate calculations using, more realistic representations of faulting, water-table rise caused by seismically induced changes in strain are seen to be higher than previously estimated by others, but not sufficient to reach a potential repository.

One source of uncertainty in calculating radionuclide releases from a potential radioactive-waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is uncertainty in the unsaturated-zone stratigraphy. Uncertainty stratigraphy results from sparse drillhole data; possible variations in stratigraphy are modeled using the geostatistical method of indicator simulation. One-dimensional stratigraphic columns are generated and used for calculations of groundwater flow and radionuclide transport. There are indications of a dependence of release on hydrogeologic-unit thicknesses, but the resulting variation in release is smaller than variations produced by other sources of uncertainty.

Sandia National Laboratories has completed the second iteration of the periodic total-system performance assessments (TSPA-93) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). These analyses estimate the future behavior of a potential repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Yucca Mountain, Nevada, site under consideration by the Department of Energy. TSPA-93 builds upon previous efforts by emphasizing YMP concerns relating to site characterization, design, and regulatory compliance. Scenarios describing expected conditions (aqueous and gaseous transport of contaminants) and low-probability events (human-intrusion drilling and volcanic intrusion) are modeled. The hydrologic processes modeled include estimates of the perturbations to ambient conditions caused by heating of the repository resulting from radioactive decay of the waste. Hydrologic parameters and parameter probability distributions have been derived from available site data. Possible future climate changes are modeled by considering two separate groundwater infiltration conditions: {open_quotes}wet{close_quotes} with a mean flux of 10 mm/yr, and {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} with a mean flux of 0.5 mm/yr. Two alternative waste-package designs and two alternative repository areal thermal power densities are investigated. One waste package is a thin-wall container emplaced in a vertical borehole, and the second is a container designed with corrosion-resistant and corrosion-allowance walls emplaced horizontally in the drift. Thermal power loadings of 57 kW/acre (the loading specified in the original repository conceptual design) and 114 kW/acre (a loading chosen to investigate effects of a {open_quotes}hot repository{close_quotes}) are considered. TSPA-93 incorporates significant new detailed process modeling, including two- and three-dimensional modeling of thermal effects, groundwater flow in the saturated-zone aquifers, and gas flow in the unsaturated zone.

A parametric model for releases of radionuclides from spent-nuclear-fuel containers in a waste repository is presented. The model is appropriate for use in preliminary total-system performance assessments of the potential repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada; for this reason it is simpler than the models used for detailed studies of waste-package performance. Terms are included for releases from the spent fuel pellets, from the pellet/cladding gap and the grain boundaries within the fuel pellets, from the cladding of the fuel rods, and from the radioactive fuel-assembly parts. Multiple barriers are considered, including the waste container, the fuel-rod cladding, the thermal ``dry-out``, and the waste form itself. The basic formulas for release from a single fuel rod or container are extended to formulas for expected releases for the whole repository by using analytic expressions for probability distributions of some important parameters. 39 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.