We use Bayesian data analysis to predict dengue fever outbreaks and quantify the link between outbreaks and meteorological precursors tied to the breeding conditions of vector mosquitos. We use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling to estimate a seasonal Gaussian process modeling infection rate, and aperiodic basis coefficients for the rate of an “outbreak level” of infection beyond seasonal trends across two separate regions. We use this outbreak level to estimate an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model from which we extrapolate a forecast. We show that the resulting model has useful forecasting power in the 6–8 week range. The forecasts are not significantly more accurate with the inclusion of meteorological covariates than with infection trends alone.
The Tularosa study was designed to understand how defensive deception-including both cyber and psychological-affects cyber attackers. Over 130 red teamers participated in a network penetration task over two days in which we controlled both the presence of and explicit mention of deceptive defensive techniques. To our knowledge, this represents the largest study of its kind ever conducted on a professional red team population. The design was conducted with a battery of questionnaires (e.g., experience, personality, etc.) and cognitive tasks (e.g., fluid intelligence, working memory, etc.), allowing for the characterization of a “typical” red teamer, as well as physiological measures (e.g., galvanic skin response, heart rate, etc.) to be correlated with the cyber events. This paper focuses on the design, implementation, data, population characteristics, and begins to examine preliminary results.
This is the official user guide for MUELU multigrid library in Trilinos version 12.13 (Dev). This guide provides an overview of MUELU, its capabilities, and instructions for new users who want to start using MUELU with a minimum of effort. Detailed information is given on how to drive MUELU through its XML interface. Links to more advanced use cases are given. This guide gives information on how to achieve good parallel performance, as well as how to introduce new algorithms Finally, readers will find a comprehensive listing of available MUELU options. Any options not documented in this manual should be considered strictly experimental.
We present an overview of optimization under uncertainty efforts under the DARPA Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) ScramjetUQ project. We introduce the mathematical frameworks and computational tools employed for performing this task. In particular, we provide details in the optimization and multilevel uncertainty quantification algorithms, which are available through the SNOWPAC and DAKOTA software packages. The overall workflow is first demonstrated on a simplified model design problem with non-reacting inviscid supersonic flows. Preliminary results and updates are then reported for a in-progress scramjet design optimization case using large-eddy simulations of supersonic reactive flows inside the HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig.
For at least the last 20 years, many have tried to create a general resource management system to support interoperability across various concurrent libraries. The previous strategies all suffered from additional toolchain requirements, and/or a usage of a shared programing model that assumed it owned/controlled access to all resources available to the program. None of these techniques have achieved wide spread adoption. The ubiquity of OpenMP coupled with C++ developing a standard way to describe many different concurrent paradigms (C++23 executors) would allow OpenMP to assume the role of a general resource manager without requiring user code written directly in OpenMP. With a few added features such as the ability to use otherwise idle threads to execute tasks and to specify a task “width”, many interesting concurrent frameworks could be developed in native OpenMP and achieve high performance. Further, one could create concrete C++ OpenMP executors that enable support for general C++ executor based codes, which would allow Fortran, C, and C++ codes to use the same underlying concurrent framework when expressed as native OpenMP or using language specific features. Effectively, OpenMP would become the de facto solution for a problem that has long plagued the HPC community.
Krichmar, Jeffrey L.; Severa, William M.; Khan, Muhammad S.; Olds, James L.
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution foretold of during the 1960s is well underway in the second decade of the twenty first century. Its period of phenomenal growth likely lies ahead. AI-operated machines and technologies will extend the reach of Homo sapiens far beyond the biological constraints imposed by evolution: outwards further into deep space, as well as inwards into the nano-world of DNA sequences and relevant medical applications. And yet, we believe, there are crucial lessons that biology can offer that will enable a prosperous future for AI. For machines in general, and for AI's especially, operating over extended periods or in extreme environments will require energy usage orders of magnitudes more efficient than exists today. In many operational environments, energy sources will be constrained. The AI's design and function may be dependent upon the type of energy source, as well as its availability and accessibility. Any plans for AI devices operating in a challenging environment must begin with the question of how they are powered, where fuel is located, how energy is stored and made available to the machine, and how long the machine can operate on specific energy units. While one of the key advantages of AI use is to reduce the dimensionality of a complex problem, the fact remains that some energy is required for functionality. Hence, the materials and technologies that provide the needed energy represent a critical challenge toward future use scenarios of AI and should be integrated into their design. Here we look to the brain and other aspects of biology as inspiration for Biomimetic Research for Energy-efficient AI Designs (BREAD).
Herrington, Adam R.; Lauritzen, Peter H.; Taylor, Mark A.; Goldhaber, Steve; Eaton; Reed; Ullrich, Paul A.
Atmospheric modeling with element-based high-order Galerkin methods presents a unique challenge to the conventional physics–dynamics coupling paradigm, due to the highly irregular distribution of nodes within an element and the distinct numerical characteristics of the Galerkin method. The conventional coupling procedure is to evaluate the physical parameterizations (physics) on the dynamical core grid. Evaluating the physics at the nodal points exacerbates numerical noise from the Galerkin method, enabling and amplifying local extrema at element boundaries. Grid imprinting may be substantially reduced through the introduction of an entirely separate, approximately isotropic finite-volume grid for evaluating the physics forcing. Integration of the spectral basis over the control volumes provides an area-average state to the physics, which is more representative of the state in the vicinity of the nodal points rather than the nodal point itself and is more consistent with the notion of a “large-scale state” required by conventional physics packages. This study documents the implementation of a quasi-equal-area physics grid into NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model Spectral Element and is shown to be effective at mitigating grid imprinting in the solution. The physics grid is also appropriate for coupling to other components within the Community Earth System Model, since the coupler requires component fluxes to be defined on a finite-volume grid, and one can be certain that the fluxes on the physics grid are, indeed, volume averaged.
Composition of computational science applications into both ad hoc pipelines for analysis of collected or generated data and into well-defined and repeatable workflows is becoming increasingly popular. Meanwhile, dedicated high performance computing storage environments are rapidly becoming more diverse, with both significant amounts of non-volatile memory storage and mature parallel file systems available. At the same time, computational science codes are being coupled to data analysis tools which are not filesystem-oriented. In this paper, we describe how the FAODEL data management service can expose different available data storage options and mediate among them in both application- and FAODEL-directed ways. These capabilities allow applications to exploit their knowledge of the different types of data they may exchange during a workflow execution, and also provide FAODEL with mechanisms to proactively tune data storage behavior when appropriate. We describe the implementation of these capabilities in FAODEL and how they are used by applications, and present preliminary performance results demonstrating the potential benefits of our approach.
The study of hypersonic flows and their underlying aerothermochemical reactions is particularly important in the design and analysis of vehicles exiting and reentering Earth’s atmosphere. Computational physics codes can be employed to simulate these phenomena; however, code verification of these codes is necessary to certify their credibility. To date, few approaches have been presented for verifying codes that simulate hypersonic flows, especially flows reacting in thermochemical nonequilibrium. In this paper, we present our code-verification techniques for hypersonic reacting flows in thermochemical nonequilibrium, as well as their deployment in the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC).
We begin by presenting an overview of the general philosophy that is guiding the novel DARMA developments, followed by a brief reminder about the background of this project. We finally present the FY19 design requirements. As the Exascale era arises, DARMA is uniquely positioned at the forefront of asychronous many-task (AMT) research and development (R&D) to explore emerging programming model paradigms for next-generation HPC applications at Sandia, across NNSA labs, and beyond. The DARMA project explores how to fundamentally shift the expression(PM) and execution(EM)of massively concurrent HPC scientific algorithms to be more asynchronous, resilient to executional aberrations in heterogeneous/unpredictable environments, and data-dependency conscious—thereby enabling an intelligent, dynamic, and self-aware runtime to guide execution.
Significant testing is required to design and certify primary aircraft structures subject to High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) events; current work under the NASA Advanced Composites Consortium (ACC) HEDI Project seeks to determine the state-of-the-art of dynamic fracture simulations for composite structures in these events. This paper discusses one of three Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods selected for the second phase of the NASA ACC project: peridynamics, through its implementation in EMU. A brief discussion of peridynamic theory is provided, including the effects of nonlinearity and strain rate dependence of the matrix followed by a blind prediction and test-analysis correlation for ballistic impact testing performed for configured skin-stringer panels.
Drinking water utilities use booster stations to maintain chlorine residuals throughout water distribution systems. Booster stations could also be used as part of an emergency response plan to minimize health risks in the event of an unintentional or malicious contamination incident. The benefit of booster stations for emergency response depends on several factors, including the reaction between chlorine and an unknown contaminant species, the fate and transport of the contaminant in the water distribution system, and the time delay between detection and initiation of boosted levels of chlorine. This paper takes these aspects into account and proposes a mixed-integer linear program formulation for optimizing the placement of booster stations for emergency response. A case study is used to explore the ability of optimally placed booster stations to reduce the impact of contamination in water distribution systems.
We describe new machine-learning-based methods to defeature CAD models for tetrahedral meshing. Using machine learning predictions of mesh quality for geometric features of a CAD model prior to meshing we can identify potential problem areas and improve meshing outcomes by presenting a prioritized list of suggested geometric operations to users. Our machine learning models are trained using a combination of geometric and topological features from the CAD model and local quality metrics for ground truth. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept implementation of the resulting work ow using Sandia's Cubit Geometry and Meshing Toolkit.
As clock speeds have stagnated, the number of cores in a node has been drastically increased to improve processor throughput. Most scalable system software was designed and developed for single-threaded environments. Multithreaded environments become increasingly prominent as application developers optimize their codes to leverage the full performance of the processor; however, these environments are incompatible with a number of assumptions that have driven scalable system software development. This paper will highlight a case study of this mismatch focusing on MPI message matching. MPI message matching has been designed and optimized for traditional serial execution. The reduced determinism in the order of MPI calls can significantly reduce the performance of MPI message matching, potentially overtaking time-per-iteration targets of many applications. Different proposed techniques attempt to address these issues and enable multithreaded MPI usage. These approaches highlight a number of tradeoffs that make adapting MPI message matching complex. This case study and its proposed solutions highlight a number of general concepts that need to be leveraged in the design of next generation scaleable system software.
In this paper, we develop software for decomposing sparse tensors that is portable to and performant on a variety of multicore, manycore, and GPU computing architectures. The result is a single code whose performance matches optimized architecture-specific implementations. The key to a portable approach is to determine multiple levels of parallelism that can be mapped in different ways to different architectures, and we explain how to do this for the matricized tensor times Khatri-Rao product (MTTKRP), which is the key kernel in canonical polyadic tensor decomposition. Our implementation leverages the Kokkos framework, which enables a single code to achieve high performance across multiple architectures that differ in how they approach fine-grained parallelism. We also introduce a new construct for portable thread-local arrays, which we call compile-time polymorphic arrays. Not only are the specifics of our approaches and implementation interesting for tuning tensor computations, but they also provide a roadmap for developing other portable high-performance codes. As a last step in optimizing performance, we modify the MTTKRP algorithm itself to do a permuted traversal of tensor nonzeros to reduce atomic-write contention. We test the performance of our implementation on 16- and 68-core Intel CPUs and the K80 and P100 NVIDIA GPUs, showing that we are competitive with state-of-the-art architecture-specific codes while having the advantage of being able to run on a variety of architectures.
In the field of semiconductor quantum dot spin qubits, there is growing interest in leveraging the unique properties of hole-carrier systems and their intrinsically strong spin-orbit coupling to engineer novel qubits. Recent advances in semiconductor heterostructure growth have made available high quality, undoped Ge/SiGe quantum wells, consisting of a pure strained Ge layer flanked by Ge-rich SiGe layers above and below. These quantum wells feature heavy hole carriers and a cubic Rashba-type spin-orbit interaction. Here, we describe progress toward realizing spin qubits in this platform, including development of multi-metal-layer gated device architectures, device tuning protocols, and charge-sensing capabilities. Iterative improvement of a three-layer metal gate architecture has significantly enhanced device performance over that achieved using an earlier single-layer gate design. We discuss ongoing, simulation-informed work to fine-tune the device geometry, as well as efforts toward a single-spin qubit demonstration.