Publications

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The study of hypersonic flows and their underlying aerothermochemical reactions is particularly important in the design and analysis of vehicles exiting and reentering Earth's atmosphere. Computational physics codes can be employed to simulate these phenomena; however, code verification of these codes is necessary to certify their credibility. To date, few approaches have been presented for verifying codes that simulate hypersonic flows, especially flows reacting in thermochemical nonequilibrium. In this work, we present our code-verification techniques for verifying the spatial accuracy and thermochemical source term in hypersonic reacting flows in thermochemical nonequilibrium. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques on the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC).

We propose a probabilistic framework for assessing the consistency of an experimental dataset, i.e., whether the stated experimental conditions are consistent with the measurements provided. In case the dataset is inconsistent, our framework allows one to hypothesize and test sources of inconsistencies. This is crucial in model validation efforts. The framework relies on statistical inference to estimate experimental settings deemed untrustworthy, from measurements deemed accurate. The quality of the inferred variables is gauged by its ability to reproduce held-out experimental measurements; if the new predictions are closer to measurements than before, the cause of the discrepancy is deemed to have been found. The framework brings together recent advances in the use of Bayesian inference and statistical emulators in fluid dynamics with similarity measures for random variables to construct the hypothesis testing approach. We test the framework on two double-cone experiments executed in the LENS-XX wind tunnel and one in the LENS-I tunnel; all three have encountered difficulties when used in model validation exercises. However, the cause behind the difficulties with the LENS-I experiment is known, and our inferential framework recovers it. We also detect an inconsistency with one of the LENS-XX experiments, and hypothesize three causes for it. We check two of the hypotheses using our framework, and we find evidence that rejects them. We end by proposing that uncertainty quantification methods be used more widely to understand experiments and characterize facilities, and we cite three different methods to do so, the third of which we present in this paper.

The study of hypersonic flows and their underlying aerothermochemical reactions is particularly important in the design and analysis of vehicles exiting and reentering Earth’s atmosphere. Computational physics codes can be employed to simulate these phenomena; however, code verification of these codes is necessary to certify their credibility. To date, few approaches have been presented for verifying codes that simulate hypersonic flows, especially flows reacting in thermochemical nonequilibrium. In this paper, we present our code-verification techniques for hypersonic reacting flows in thermochemical nonequilibrium, as well as their deployment in the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC).

The study of hypersonic flows and their underlying aerothermochemical reactions is particularly important in the design and analysis of vehicles exiting and reentering Earth’s atmosphere. Computational physics codes can be employed to simulate these phenomena; however, code verification of these codes is necessary to certify their credibility. To date, few approaches have been presented for verifying codes that simulate hypersonic flows, especially flows reacting in thermochemical nonequilibrium. In this paper, we present our code-verification techniques for hypersonic reacting flows in thermochemical nonequilibrium, as well as their deployment in the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC).

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When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution or probability density function (PDF) of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the PDF from which the data samples come. Then a significant component of epistemic uncertainty exists concerning the source distribution of random or aleatory variability. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, one would normally want to avoid inference related under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance, and failure probabilities. Recent research has established the practicality and effectiveness of a class of simple and inexpensive UQ Methods for reasonable conservative estimation of such quantities when only sparse samples of a random quantity are available. This class of UQ methods is explained, demonstrated, and analyzed in this paper within the context of the Sandia Cantilever Beam End-to-End UQ Problem, Part A.1. Several sets of sparse replicate data are involved and several representative uncertainty quantities are to be estimated: A) beam deflection variability, in particular the 2.5 to 97.5 percentile “central 95%” range of the sparsely sampled PDF of deflection; and B) a small exceedance probability associated with a tail of the PDF integrated beyond a specified deflection tolerance.

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution or probability density function (PDF) of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the PDF from which the data samples come. Then a significant component of epistemic uncertainty exists concerning the source distribution of random or aleatory variability. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, one would normally want to avoid inference related under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance, and failure probabilities. Recent research has established the practicality and effectiveness of a class of simple and inexpensive UQ Methods for reasonable conservative estimation of such quantities when only sparse samples of a random quantity are available. This class of UQ methods is explained, demonstrated, and analyzed in this paper within the context of the Sandia Cantilever Beam End-to-End UQ Problem, Part A.1. Several sets of sparse replicate data are involved and several representative uncertainty quantities are to be estimated: A) beam deflection variability, in particular the 2.5 to 97.5 percentile “central 95%” range of the sparsely sampled PDF of deflection; and B) a small exceedance probability associated with a tail of the PDF integrated beyond a specified deflection tolerance.

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10^-4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

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The overall conduct of verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) is discussed through the construction of a workflow relevant to computational modeling including the turbulence problem in the coarse grained simulation (CGS) approach. The workflow contained herein is defined at a high level and constitutes an overview of the activity. Nonetheless, the workflow represents an essential activity in predictive simulation and modeling. VVUQ is complex and necessarily hierarchical in nature. The particular characteristics of VVUQ elements depend upon where the VVUQ activity takes place in the overall hierarchy of physics and models. In this chapter, we focus on the differences between and interplay among validation, calibration and UQ, as well as the difference between UQ and sensitivity analysis. The discussion in this chapter is at a relatively high level and attempts to explain the key issues associated with the overall conduct of VVUQ. The intention is that computational physicists can refer to this chapter for guidance regarding how VVUQ analyses fit into their efforts toward conducting predictive calculations.

This report summarizes the results of a NEAMS project focused on the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods within the NEK-5000 and Dakota software framework for assessing failure probabilities as part of probabilistic risk assessment. NEK-5000 is a software tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory to perform computational fluid dynamics calculations for applications such as thermohydraulics of nuclear reactor cores. Dakota is a software tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories containing optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification algorithms. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the use of uncertainty quantification methods in Dakota with NEK-5000.