Publications

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Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex physical-socio-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation. The Phoenix initiative implements CASoS Engineering principles combining the bottom up Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems view with the top down Systems Engineering and System-of-Systems view. CASoS Engineering theory and practice must be conducted together to develop a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave and allows us to better control the outcomes. The pull of applications (real world problems) is critical to this effort, as is the articulation of a CASoS Engineering Framework that grounds an engineering approach in the theory of complex adaptive systems of systems. Successful application of the CASoS Engineering Framework requires modeling, simulation and analysis (MS and A) capabilities and the cultivation of a CASoS Engineering Community of Practice through knowledge sharing and facilitation. The CASoS Engineering Environment, itself a complex adaptive system of systems, constitutes the two platforms that provide these capabilities.

Loki-Infect 3 is a desktop application intended for use by community-level decision makers. It allows rapid construction of small-scale studies of emerging or hypothetical infectious diseases in their communities and evaluation of the potential effectiveness of various containment strategies. It was designed with an emphasis on modularity, portability, and ease of use. Our goal is to make this program freely available to community workers across the world.

Cigarette smoking presented the most significant public health challenge in the United States in the 20th Century and remains the single most preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in this country. A number of System Dynamics models exist that inform tobacco control policies. We reviewed them and discuss their contributions. We developed a theory of the societal lifecycle of smoking, using a parsimonious set of feedback loops to capture historical trends and explore future scenarios. Previous work did not explain the long-term historical patterns of smoking behaviors. Much of it used stock-and-flow to represent the decline in prevalence in the recent past. With noted exceptions, information feedbacks were not embedded in these models. We present and discuss our feedback-rich conceptual model and illustrate the results of a series of simulations. A formal analysis shows phenomena composed of different phases of behavior with specific dominant feedbacks associated with each phase. We discuss the implications of our society's current phase, and conclude with simulations of what-if scenarios. Because System Dynamics models must contain information feedback to be able to anticipate tipping points and to help identify policies that exploit leverage in a complex system, we expanded this body of work to provide an endogenous representation of the century-long societal lifecycle of smoking.

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The objectives of this presentation are: (1) To determine if healthcare settings serve as intensive transmission environments for influenza epidemics, increasing effects on communities; (2) To determine which mitigation strategies are best for use in healthcare settings and in communities to limit influenza epidemic effects; and (3) To determine which mitigation strategies are best to prevent illness in healthcare workers.

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We develop a parsimonious model of the interbank payment system. The model incorporates an endogenous instruction arrival process, a scale-free topology of payments between banks, a fixed total liquidity which limits banks' capacity to process arriving instructions, and a global market that distributes liquidity. We find that at low liquidity the system becomes congested and payment settlement loses correlation with payment instruction arrival, becoming coupled across the network. The onset of congestion is evidently related to the relative values of three characteristic times: the time for banks' net position to return to 0, the time for a bank to exhaust its liquidity endowment, and the liquidity market relaxation time. In the congested regime settlement takes place in cascades having a characteristic length scale. A global liquidity market substantially attenuates congestion, requiring only a small fraction of the payment-induced liquidity flow to achieve strong beneficial effects. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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An infiltration and dye transport experiment was conducted to visualize flow and transport processes in a heterogeneous, layered, sandy-gravelly fluvial deposit adjacent to Rio Bravo Boulevard in Albuquerque, NM. Water containing red dye followed by blue-green dye was ponded in a small horizontal zone ({approx}0.5 m x 0.5 m) above a vertical outcrop ({approx}4 m x 2.5 m). The red dye lagged behind the wetting front due to slight adsorption thus allowing both the wetting front and dye fronts to be observed in time at the outcrop face. After infiltration, vertical slices were excavated to the midpoint of the infiltrometer exposing the wetting front and dye distribution in a quasi three-dimensional manner. At small-scale, wetting front advancement was influenced by the multitude of local capillary barriers within the deposit. However at the scale of the experiment, the wetting front appeared smooth with significant lateral spreading {approx} twice that in the vertical, indicating a strong anisotropy due to the pronounced horizontal layering. The dye fronts exhibited appreciably more irregularity than the wetting front, as well as the influence of preferential flow features (a fracture) that moved the dye directly to the front, bypassing the fresh water between.

This report describes a model Transport Processes Investigation (TPI) where field-scale vadose zone flow and transport processes are identified and verified through a systematic field investigation at a contaminated DOE site. The objective of the TPI is to help with formulating accurate conceptual models and aid in implementing rational and cost effective site specific characterization strategies at contaminated sites with diverse hydrogeologic settings. Central to the TPI are Transport Processes Characterization (TPC) tests that incorporate field surveys and large-scale infiltration experiments. Hypotheses are formulated based on observed pedogenic and hydrogeologic features as well as information provided by literature searches. The field and literature information is then used to optimize the design of one or more infiltration experiments to field test the hypothesis. Findings from the field surveys and infiltration experiments are then synthesized to formulate accurate flow and transport conceptual models. Here we document a TPI implemented in the glacial till vadose zone at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) in Fernald, Ohio, a US Department of Energy (DOE) uranium processing site. As a result of this TPI, the flow and transport mechanisms were identified through visualization of dye stain within extensive macro pore and fracture networks which provided the means for the infiltrate to bypass potential aquatards. Such mechanisms are not addressed in current vadose zone modeling and are generally missed by classical characterization methods.

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Concepts from Complexity Science are valuable and allow a simulation approach for critical infrastructures that is flexible and has wide ranging applications.