Nuclear weapons stockpile planning is a complex process. The Non-Proliferation Treaty,' New START Treaty,2 DOE/NNSA, STRATCOM, Navy, Air Force, and Executive-Branch all have objectives that drive requirements for the types and quantities of nuclear weapons, which in turn drive how nuclear weapons are designed, manufactured, tested, maintained, deployed, transported, stored, retired, and ultimately dismantled. An estimated 200 distinct individuals contribute to the development, completion, and approval of this plan. And once that plan is completed, herein called the N NSA Program of Record (POR), ensuring that the plan is feasible — that the stockpile work can get done — ensures that the Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) can deliver the intended nuclear force posture.
As alternative energy generating devices (i.e., solar, wind, etc) are added onto the electrical energy grid (AC grid), irregularities in the available electricity due to natural occurrences (i.e., clouds reducing solar input or wind burst increasing wind powered turbines) will be dramatically increased. Due to their almost instantaneous response, modern flywheel-based energy storage devices can act a mechanical mechanism to regulate the AC grid; however, improved spin speeds will be required to meet the necessary energy levels to balance these green energy variances. Focusing on composite flywheels, we have investigated methods for improving the spin speeds based on materials needs. The so-called composite flywheels are composed of carbon fiber (C-fiber), glass fiber, and a glue (resin) to hold them together. For this effort, we have focused on the addition of fillers to the resin in order to improve its properties. Based on the high loads required for standard meso-sized fillers, this project investigated the utility of ceramic nanofillers since they can be added at very low load levels due to their high surface area. The impact that TiO2 nanowires had on the final strength of the flywheel material was determined by a three-point-bend test. The results of the introduction of nanomaterials demonstrated an increase in strength of the flywheels C-fiber-resin moiety, with an upper limit of a 30% increase being reported. An analysis of the economic impact concerning the utilization of the nanowires was undertaken and after accounting for new-technology and additional production costs, return on improved-nanocomposite investment was approximated at 4-6% per year over the 20-year expected service life. Further, it was determined based on the 30% improvement in strength, this change may enable a 20-30% reduction in flywheel energy storage cost ($/kW-h).
This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.
The chemical industry is one of the largest industries in the United States and a vital contributor to global chemical supply chains. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate has tasked Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) with developing an analytical capability to assess interdependencies and complexities of the nation's critical infrastructures on and with the chemical sector. This work is being performed to expand the infrastructure analytical capabilities of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC). To address this need, Sandia has focused on development of an agent-based methodology towards simulating the domestic chemical supply chain and determining economic impacts resulting from large-scale disruptions to the chemical sector. Modeling the chemical supply chain is unique because the flow of goods and services are guided by process thermodynamics and reaction kinetics. Sandia has integrated an agent-based microeconomic simulation tool N-ABLETM with various chemical industry datasets to abstract the chemical supply chain behavior. An enterprise design within N-ABLETM consists of a collection of firms within a supply chain network; each firm interacts with others through chemical reactions, markets, and physical infrastructure. The supply and demand within each simulated network must be consistent with respect to mass balances of every chemical within the network. Production decisions at every time step are a set of constrained linear program (LP) solutions that minimize the difference between desired and actual outputs. We illustrate the methodology with examples of modeled petrochemical supply chains under an earthquake event. The supply chain impacts of upstream and downstream chemicals associated with organic intermediates after a short-term shutdown in the affected area are discussed.
In recent years, the nation has recognized that critical infrastructure protection should consider not only the prevention of disruptive events, but also the processes that infrastructure systems undergo to maintain functionality following disruptions. This more comprehensive approach has been termed critical infrastructure resilience. Given the occurrence of a particular disruptive event, the resilience of a system to that event is the system's ability to efficiently reduce both the magnitude and duration of the deviation from targeted system performance levels. Under the direction of the U. S. Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate, Sandia National Laboratories has developed a comprehensive resilience assessment framework for evaluating the resilience of infrastructure and economic systems. The framework includes a quantitative methodology that measures resilience costs that result from a disruption to infrastructure function. The framework also includes a qualitative analysis methodology that assesses system characteristics affecting resilience to provide insight and direction for potential improvements. This paper describes the resilience assessment framework and demonstrates the utility of the assessment framework through application to two hypothetical scenarios involving the disruption of a petrochemical supply chain by hurricanes.