Publications

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This manual provides the documentation of the MATLAB toolbox of functions for using OpenDSS to simulate the impact of solar energy on the distribution system. The majority of the functions are useful for interfacing OpenDSS and MATLAB, and they are of generic use for commanding OpenDSS from MATLAB and retrieving information from simulations. A set of functions is also included for modeling PV plant output and setting up the PV plant in the OpenDSS simulation. The toolbox contains functions for modeling the OpenDSS distribution feeder on satellite images with GPS coordinates. Finally, example simulations functions are included to show potential uses of the toolbox functions. Each function in the toolbox is documented with the function use syntax, full description, function input list, function output list, example use, and example output.

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Imagery from GOES satellites is analyzed to determine how solar variability is related to the NOAA classification of cloud type. Without using a model to convert satellite imagery to average insolation on the ground, this paper investigates using cloud categories to directly model the expected statistical variability of ground irradiance. Hourly cloud classified satellite images are compared to multiple years of ground measured irradiance at two locations to determine if measured irradiance, ramp rates, and variability index are correlated with cloud category. Novel results are presented for ramp rates grouped by the cloud category during the time period. This correlation between satellite cloud classification and solar variability could be used to model the solar variability for a given location and time and could be used to determine the variability of a location based on the prevalence of each cloud category.

Variability of photovoltaic (PV) power output is a potential concern to utilities because it can lead to voltage changes on the distribution system and have other adverse impacts on power quality unless additional equipment is added or operational practices are changed to mitigate these effects. This paper develops and evaluates a simple yet novel approach for quantifying irradiance variability over various timescales. The approach involves comparison between measured irradiance and a reference, clear sky irradiance, determined from a model. Conceptually, the "Variability Index" is the ratio of the "length" of the measured irradiance plotted against time divided by the "length" of the reference clear sky irradiance signal. Adjustments are proposed that correct for different measurement intervals. By evaluating the variability index at several sites, we show how annual and monthly distributions of this metric can help to classify sites and periods of time when variability is significant. Copyright © (2012) by American Solar Energy Society.

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects must go through an interconnection study process before connecting to the distribution grid. These studies are intended to identify the likely impacts and mitigation alternatives. In the majority of the cases, system impacts can be ruled out or mitigation can be identified without an involved study, through a screening process or a simple supplemental review study. For some proposed projects, expensive and time-consuming interconnection studies are required. The challenges to performing the studies are twofold. First, every study scenario is potentially unique, as the studies are often highly specific to the amount of PV generation capacity that varies greatly from feeder to feeder and is often unevenly distributed along the same feeder. This can cause location-specific impacts and mitigations. The second challenge is the inherent variability in PV power output which can interact with feeder operation in complex ways, by affecting the operation of voltage regulation and protection devices. The typical simulation tools and methods in use today for distribution system planning are often not adequate to accurately assess these potential impacts. This report demonstrates how quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation and high time-resolution data can be used to assess the potential impacts in a more comprehensive manner. The QSTS simulations are applied to a set of sample feeders with high PV deployment to illustrate the usefulness of the approach. The report describes methods that can help determine how PV affects distribution system operations. The simulation results are focused on enhancing the understanding of the underlying technical issues. The examples also highlight the steps needed to perform QSTS simulation and describe the data needed to drive the simulations. The goal of this report is to make the methodology of time series power flow analysis readily accessible to utilities and others responsible for evaluating potential PV impacts.

High frequency irradiance variability measured on the ground is caused by the formation, dissipation, and passage of clouds in the sky. Variability and ramp rates of PV systems are increasingly important to understand and model for grid stability as PV penetration levels rise. Using satellite imagery to identify cloud types and patterns can predict irradiance variability in areas lacking sensors. With satellite imagery covering the entire U.S., this allows for more accurate integration planning and power flow modelling over wide areas. Satellite imagery from southern Nevada was analyzed at 15 minute intervals over a year. Methods for image stabilization, cloud detection, and textural classification of clouds were developed and tested. High Performance Computing parallel processing algorithms were also investigated and tested. Artificial Neural Networks using imagery as inputs were trained on ground-based measurements of irradiance to model the variability and were tested to show some promise as a means for predicting irradiance variability. Artificial Neural Networks, cloud texture analysis, and cloud type categorization can be used to model the irradiance and variability for a location at a one minute resolution without needing many ground based irradiance sensors. © 2012 IEEE.

High frequency irradiance variability measured on the ground is caused by the formation, dissipation, and passage of clouds in the sky. Variability and ramp rates of PV systems are increasingly important to understand and model for grid stability as PV penetration levels rise. Using satellite imagery to identify cloud types and patterns can predict irradiance variability in areas lacking sensors. With satellite imagery covering the entire U.S., this allows for more accurate integration planning and power flow modelling over wide areas. Satellite imagery from southern Nevada was analyzed at 15 minute intervals over a year. Methods for image stabilization, cloud detection, and textural classification of clouds were developed and tested. High Performance Computing parallel processing algorithms were also investigated and tested. Artificial Neural Networks using imagery as inputs were trained on ground-based measurements of irradiance to model the variability and were tested to show some promise as a means for predicting irradiance variability. Artificial Neural Networks, cloud texture analysis, and cloud type categorization can be used to model the irradiance and variability for a location at a one minute resolution without needing many ground based irradiance sensors. © 2012 IEEE.

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Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

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Design and operation of the electric power grid (EPG) relies heavily on computational models. High-fidelity, full-order models are used to study transient phenomena on only a small part of the network. Reduced-order dynamic and power flow models are used when analysis involving thousands of nodes are required due to the computational demands when simulating large numbers of nodes. The level of complexity of the future EPG will dramatically increase due to large-scale deployment of variable renewable generation, active load and distributed generation resources, adaptive protection and control systems, and price-responsive demand. High-fidelity modeling of this future grid will require significant advances in coupled, multi-scale tools and their use on high performance computing (HPC) platforms. This LDRD report demonstrates SNL's capability to apply HPC resources to these 3 tasks: (1) High-fidelity, large-scale modeling of power system dynamics; (2) Statistical assessment of grid security via Monte-Carlo simulations of cyber attacks; and (3) Development of models to predict variability of solar resources at locations where little or no ground-based measurements are available.

High frequency irradiance variability measured on the ground is caused by the formation, dissipation, and passage of clouds in the sky. If we can identify and associate different cloud types/patterns from satellite imagery, we may be able to predict irradiance variability in areas lacking sensors. With satellite imagery covering the entire U.S., this allows for more accurate integration planning and power flow modeling over wide areas. Satellite imagery from southern Nevada was analyzed at 15 minute intervals over a year. Methods for image stabilization, cloud detection, and textural classification of clouds were developed and tested. High Performance Computing parallel processing algorithms were also investigated and tested. Artificial Neural Networks using imagery as inputs were trained on ground-based measurements of irradiance to model the variability and were tested to show some promise as a means for predicting irradiance variability.