Many methods have been suggested to choose between distributions. There has been relatively less study to examine whether these methods accurately recover the distributions being studied. Hence, this research compares several popular distribution selection methods through a Monte Carlo simulation study and identifies which are robust for several types of discrete probability distributions. In addition, we study whether it matters that the distribution selection method does not accurately pick the correct probability distribution by calculating the expected distance, which is the amount of information lost for each distribution selection method compared to the generating probability distribution.
Many individuals' mobility can be characterized by strong patterns of regular movements and is influenced by social relationships. Social networks are also often organized into overlapping communities which are associated in time or space. We develop a model that can generate the structure of a social network and attribute purpose to individuals' movements, based solely on records of individuals' locations over time. This model distinguishes the attributed purpose of check-ins based on temporal and spatial patterns in check-in data. Because a location-based social network dataset with authoritative ground-truth to test our entire model does not exist, we generate large scale datasets containing social networks and individual check-in data to test our model. We find that our model reliably assigns community purpose to social check-in data, and is robust over a variety of different situations.
Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP in the U.S., it is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions, and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade. It is therefore important that the national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail, and truck modes, which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure, as well as the imposition of new user fees and changes in operating policies. The model integrates a user equilibrium-based logit argument for path selection with a system optimal argument for rail network operations. This leads to the development of a unique solution procedure that is demonstrated in a large-scale analysis focused on all intercity freight and U.S export/import containerized freight. The model results are compared with the reported flow volumes. The model is applied to two case studies: (1) a disruption of the seaports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA and LB) similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and (2) implementation of new user fees at the California ports.
Here, this paper focuses on scheduling antennas to track satellites using a novel heuristic method. The objectives pursued in developing a schedule are two-fold: (1) minimize the priority weighted number of time periods that satellites are not tracked; and (2) equalize the percent of time each satellite is uncovered. The heuristic method is a population-based local search tailored to the unique characteristics of this problem. In order to validate the performance of the heuristic, bounds are developed using Lagrangian relaxation. The heuristic method and the bounds are applied to several test problems. In all cases, the heuristic identifies a solution that is better than the upper bound and is generally quite close (but obviously larger) than the lower bound with about an order of magnitude reduction in computation time. Lastly, a comparison with CPLEX 12.7 is provided.
The performance of many of the technologies used in physical protection systems that guard high-value assets are heavily influenced by weather and visibility conditions as well as intruder capabilities. This complicates the already difficult problem of optimizing the design of multi-layered physical protection systems. This paper develops an optimization model for the automatic design of these systems with explicit consideration of the impact of weather and visibility conditions as well as intruder capabilities on system performance. An illustrative case study is provided.
Despite the known degrading impact of high nuisance and false alarm rates (NAR/FAR) on operator performance, analyses of security systems often ignores operator performance. We developed a model to analyze the impact of nuisance alarm rates on operator performance and on overall system performance. The model demonstrates that current methods that do not account for operator performance produce optimistic estimates of system performance. As shown in our model, even low NAR/FAR levels and the associated alarm queueing effect can increase operator detect and response time, which in turn reduces the amount of time the response force has to interrupt the intruder. An illustrative analysis shows that alarm processing times can be higher than the assessment time due to queue wait times and that systems with only one or two operators can become overwhelmed as NAR increases, decreasing system performance.
This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.
In July 2012, protestors cut through security fences and gained access to the Y-12 National Security Complex. This was believed to be a highly reliable, multi-layered security system. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that created a consistent, robust mathematical framework using complex systems analysis algorithms and techniques to better understand the emergent behavior, vulnerabilities and resiliency of multi-layered security systems subject to budget constraints and competing security priorities. Because there are several dimensions to security system performance and a range of attacks that might occur, the framework is multi-objective for a performance frontier to be estimated. This research explicitly uses probability of intruder interruption given detection (PI) as the primary resilience metric. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with both notional as well as real-world examples of Physical Protection Systems (PPSs) and validate using a well-established force-on-force simulation tool, Umbra.