The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performed a first-of-a-kind uncertainty analysis (UA) of the accident progression, radiological releases, and offsite consequences for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) of an unmitigated long-term station blackout (LTSBO) severe accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The objective of the UA was to evaluate the robustness of the SOARCA deterministic "best estimate results and conclusions documented in NUREG-1935, and to develop insight into the overall sensitivity of the SOARCA results to uncertainty in key modeling inputs. The study was completed in 2015 and documented in NUREG/CR-7155. Since 2015, two other SOARCA UAs were completed for two pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants. The PWR UAs incrementally updated the approach and methodology, including using the latest release of the MELCOR 2.2 computer code. There were also advances made in the state-of-the-art modeling related to NRC efforts using the Peach Bottom model in NUREG-2206, which provided the technical basis for the containment protection and release reduction rulemaking for boiling water reactors with Mark I and Mark II containments. This report documents the input model changes from the NUREG/CR-7155 study and performs a small number of reference calculations to assess the changes of the new computer code and the model input updates. The objective of the work is to verify whether the updated Peach Bottom MELCOR model and updated version of MELCOR support the conclusions formed in the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA by performing these representative calculations.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has interacted with vendors pursuing the commercialization of micro-reactors (i.e., reactors capable of producing about 1 MW(th) to 20 MW(th) of energy from nuclear fission). It is envisioned that micro-reactors could be assembled and fueled in a factory and shipped to a site. Many of the sites are expected to be remote locations requiring off-grid power or in some cases military bases. The objective of this effort is to explore the technical issues and the approach required to reach a finding of "reasonable assurance of public health and safety" for this new and different class of reactors. The analysis performed here leverages available micro-reactor design and testing data available from national laboratory experience as well as commercial design information to explore technical issues. Some factors considered include source term, accidents that would need to be analyzed, and the extent of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The technical evaluation was performed within the framework of the Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) to identify licensing basis events, classification of structures, systems and components, and defense-in-depth needed to provide regulatory certainty. With this framework and technical evaluation in mind, the scope and content of a micro-reactor licensing application is discussed.
The work presented in this paper applies the MELCOR code developed at Sandia National Laboratories to evaluate the source terms from potential accidents in non-reactor nuclear facilities. The present approach provides an integrated source term approach that would be well-suited for uncertainty analysis and probabilistic risk assessments. MELCOR is used to predict the thermal-hydraulic conditions during fires or explosions that includes a release of radionuclides. The radionuclides are tracked throughout the facility from the initiating event to predict the time-dependent source term to the environment for subsequent dose or consequence evaluations. In this paper, we discuss the MELCOR input model development and the evaluation of the potential source terms from the dominated fire and explosion scenarios for a spent fuel nuclear reprocessing plant.
This document summarily provides brief descriptions of the MELCOR code enhancement made between code revision number 11932 and 14959. Revision 11932 represents the last official code release; therefore, the modeling features described within this document are provided to assist users that update to the newest official MELCOR code release, 14959. Along with the newly updated MELCOR Users' Guide and Reference Manual, users will be aware and able to assess the new capabilities for their modeling and analysis applications. Following the official release an addendum section has been added to this report detailing modifications made to the official release which support the accompanying patch release. The addendums address user reported issues and previously known issues within the official code release which extends the original Quick look document to also support the patch release. Furthermore, the addendums section documents the recent changes to input records in the Users' Guide applicable to the patch release and corrects a few issues in the revision 14959 release as well.
The work presented in this report applies the MELCOR code to evaluate potential accidents in non-reactor nuclear facilities, focusing on Design Basis Accidents. Ten accident scenarios were modeled using NRC's best-estimate severe accident analysis code, MELCOR 2.2. The accident scenarios simulated a range of explosions and/or fires related to a nuclear fuel reprocessing facility. The objective was to evaluate the radionuclide source term to the environment following initiating explosion and/or fire events. The simulations were performed using a MELCOR model of the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant, which was decommissioned before beginning reprocessing operations. Five of the accident scenarios were based on the Class 5 Design Basis Accidents from the Final Safety Analysis Report. Three of the remaining accident scenarios include sensitivity studies on smaller solvent fires. The final two accidents included an induced fire from an initial explosion. The radionuclide inventory was developed from ORIGEN calculations of spent PWR fuel with an initial enrichment of 4.5% U-235 by weight. The fuel aged for five years after a final 500-day irradiation cycle. The burn-up was conservatively increased to 60 GWd/MTU to bound current US operations. The results are characterized in terms of activity release to the environment and the building decontamination factor, which is related the leak path factor used in Department of Energy safety analyses. The MELCOR 2.2 results consider adverse consequences to the filters, ventilation system, and structures as a result of the explosions and fires. The calculations also include best-estimate models for aerosol transport, agglomeration, and deposition. The new calculations illustrate best-estimate approaches for predicting the source term from a reprocessing facility accident.
As part of a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) research program to evaluate the impact of using mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel in commercial nuclear power plants, a study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of the usage of MOX fuel on the consequences of postulated severe accidents. A series of 23 severe accident calculations was performed using MELCOR 1.8.5 for a four-loop Westinghouse reactor with an ice condenser containment. The calculations covered five basic accident classes that were identified as the risk- and consequence-dominant accident sequences in plant-specific probabilistic risk assessments for the McGuire and Catawba nuclear plants, including station blackouts and loss-of-coolant accidents of various sizes, with both early and late containment failures. Ultimately, the results of these MELCOR simulations will be used to provide a supplement to the NRC's alternative source term described in NUREG-1465. Source term magnitude and timing results are presented consistent with the NUREG-1465 format. For each of the severe accident release phases (coolant release, gap release, in-vessel release, ex-vessel release, and late in-vessel release), source term timing information (onset of release and duration) is presented. For all release phases except for the coolant release phase, magnitudes are presented for each of the NUREG-1465 radionuclide groups. MELCOR results showed variation of noble metal releases between those typical of ruthenium (Ru) and those typical of molybdenum (Mo); therefore, results for the noble metals were presented for Ru and Mo separately. The collection of the source term results can be used as the basis to develop a representative source term (across all accident types) that will be the MOX supplement to NUREG-1465.