Publications

Abstract not provided.

This work develops a new approach for generating stochastic permeability fields from complex three-dimensional fracture networks to support physical and economic performance analyses of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The approach represents multiple fracture sets with different dips, orientations, apertures, spacing, and lengths by homogenizing discrete fracture permeabilities onto a regular grid using continuum methods. A previously developed algorithm is used for combining multiple fracture sets at arbitrary orientations into a full anisotropic permeability tensor for every grid block. Fracture properties for each grid cell can either be independently specified or spatially correlated using a variety of probability distributions. The generated stochastic permeability fields are used in mass and heat transport models to represent a variety of complex fracture networks to provide realistic simulations of long-term thermal performance.

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

Abstract not provided.

Surface and groundwater resources do not recognize political boundaries. Where nature and boundary cross, tension over shared water resources can erupt. Such tension is exacerbated in regions where demand approaches or exceeds sustainable supplies of water. Establishing equitable management strategies can help prevent and resolve conflict over shared water resources. This paper describes a methodology for addressing transboundary water issues predicated on the integration of monitoring and modeling within a framework of cooperation. Cooperative monitoring begins with agreement by international scientists and/or policy makers on transboundary monitoring goals and strategies; it leads to the process of obtaining and sharing agreed-upon information among parties with the purpose of providing verifiable and secure data. Cooperative modeling is the process by which the parties jointly interpret the data, forecast future events and trends, and quantify cause and effect relationships. Together, cooperative monitoring and modeling allow for the development and assessment of alternative management and remediation strategies that could form the basis of regional watershed agreements or treaties. An example of how this multifaceted approach might be used to manage a shared water resource is presented for the Kura River basin in the Caucasus.