This report summarizes findings and results of the Quantifiably Secure Power Grid Operation, Management, and Evolution LDRD. The focus of the LDRD was to develop decisionsupport technologies to enable rational and quantifiable risk management for two key grid operational timescales: scheduling (day-ahead) and planning (month-to-year-ahead). Risk or resiliency metrics are foundational in this effort. The 2003 Northeast Blackout investigative report stressed the criticality of enforceable metrics for system resiliency the grids ability to satisfy demands subject to perturbation. However, we neither have well-defined risk metrics for addressing the pervasive uncertainties in a renewable energy era, nor decision-support tools for their enforcement, which severely impacts efforts to rationally improve grid security. For day-ahead unit commitment, decision-support tools must account for topological security constraints, loss-of-load (economic) costs, and supply and demand variability especially given high renewables penetration. For long-term planning, transmission and generation expansion must ensure realized demand is satisfied for various projected technological, climate, and growth scenarios. The decision-support tools investigated in this project paid particular attention to tailoriented risk metrics for explicitly addressing high-consequence events. Historically, decisionsupport tools for the grid consider expected cost minimization, largely ignoring risk and instead penalizing loss-of-load through artificial parameters. The technical focus of this work was the development of scalable solvers for enforcing risk metrics. Advanced stochastic programming solvers were developed to address generation and transmission expansion and unit commitment, minimizing cost subject to pre-specified risk thresholds. Particular attention was paid to renewables where security critically depends on production and demand prediction accuracy. To address this concern, powerful filtering techniques for spatio-temporal measurement assimilation were used to develop short-term predictive stochastic models. To achieve uncertaintytolerant solutions, very large numbers of scenarios must be simultaneously considered. One focus of this work was investigating ways of reasonably reducing this number.
This report proposes a reformulation of U.S. ISO/RTO-managed wholesale electric power mar- kets for improved reliability and e ciency of system operations. Current markets do not specify or compensate primary frequency response. They also unnecessarily limit the participation of new technologies in reserve markets and o er insu cient economic inducements for new capacity invest- ment. In the proposed market reformulation, energy products are represented as physically-covered rm contracts and reserve products as physically-covered call option contracts. Trading of these products is supported by a backbone of linked ISO/RTO-managed forward markets with planning horizons ranging from multiple years to minutes ahead. A principal advantage of this reformulation is that reserve needs can be speci ed in detail, and resources can o er the services for which they are best suited, without being forced to conform to rigid reserve product de nitions. This should improve the business case for electric energy storage and other emerging technologies to provide reserve. In addition, the facilitation of price discovery should help to ensure e cient energy/reserve procurement and adequate levels of new capacity investment.
The goal of this study was to evaluate the small signal and transient stability of the Western Electric- ity Coordinating Council (WECC) under high penetrations of renewable energy, and to identify control technologies that would improve the system performance. The WECC is the regional entity responsible for coordinating and promoting bulk electric system reliability in the Western Interconnection. Transient stability is the ability of the power system to maintain synchronism after a large disturbance while small signal stability is the ability of the power system to maintain synchronism after a small disturbance. Tran- sient stability analysis usually focuses on the relative rotor angle between synchronous machines compared to some stability margin. For this study we employed generator speed relative to system speed as a metric for assessing transient stability. In addition, we evaluated the system transient response using the system frequency nadir, which provides an assessment of the adequacy of the primary frequency control reserves. Small signal stability analysis typically identi es the eigenvalues or modes of the system in response to a disturbance. For this study we developed mode shape maps for the di erent scenarios. Prony analysis was applied to generator speed after a 1.4 GW, 0.5 second, brake insertion at various locations. Six di erent WECC base cases were analyzed, including the 2022 light spring case which meets the renewable portfolio standards. Because of the di culty in identifying the cause and e ect relationship in large power system models with di erent scenarios, several simulations were run on a 7-bus, 5-generator system to isolate the e ects of di erent con gurations. Based on the results of the study, for a large power system like the WECC, incorporating frequency droop into wind/solar systems provides a larger bene t to system transient response than replacing the lost inertia with synthetic inertia. From a small signal stability perspective, the increase in renewable penetration results in subtle changes to the system modes. In gen- eral, mode frequencies increase slightly, and mode shapes remain similar. The system frequency nadir for the 2022 light spring case was slightly lower than the other cases, largely because of the reduced system inertia. However, the nadir is still well above the minimum load shedding frequency of 59.5 Hz. Finally, several discrepancies were identi ed between actual and reported wind penetration, and additional work on wind/solar modeling is required to increase the delity of the WECC models.
This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.
This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.