This is the second of three related conference papers focused on verifying and validating a CFD model for laminar hypersonic flows. The first paper deals with the code verification and solution verification activities. In this paper, we investigate whether the model can accurately simulate laminar, hypersonic experiments of flows over double-cones, conducted in CUBRC’s LENS-I and LENS-XX wind-tunnels. The approach is to use uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, along with a careful examination of experimental uncertainties, to perform validation assessments. The validation assessments use metrics that probabilistically incorporate both parametric (i.e. freestream input) uncertainty and experimental uncertainty. Further validation assessments compare these uncertainties to iterative and convergence uncertainties described in the first paper in our series of related papers. As other researchers have found, the LENS-XX simulations under-predict experimental heat flux measurements in the laminar, attached region of the fore-cone. This is observed for a deterministic simulation, as well as a probabilistic approach to creating an ensemble of simulations derived from CUBRC-provided estimates of uncertainty for freestream conditions. This paper will conclude with possible reasons that simulations cannot bracket experimental observations, and motivate the third paper in our series, which will further examine these possible explanations. The results in this study emphasize the importance of careful measurement of experimental conditions and uncertainty quantification of validation experiments. This study, along with its sister papers, also demonstrates a process of verification, uncertainty quantification, and quantitative validation activities for building and assessing credibility of computational simulations.
The SPARC (Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code) will provide nuclear weapon qualification evidence for the random vibration and thermal environments created by re-entry of a warhead into the earth’s atmosphere. SPARC incorporates the innovative approaches of ATDM projects on several fronts including: effective harnessing of heterogeneous compute nodes using Kokkos, exascale-ready parallel scalability through asynchronous multi-tasking, uncertainty quantification through Sacado integration, implementation of state-of-the-art reentry physics and multiscale models, use of advanced verification and validation methods, and enabling of improved workflows for users. SPARC is being developed primarily for the Department of Energy nuclear weapon program, with additional development and use of the code is being supported by the Department of Defense for conventional weapons programs.
The overall conduct of verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) is discussed through the construction of a workflow relevant to computational modeling including the turbulence problem in the coarse grained simulation (CGS) approach. The workflow contained herein is defined at a high level and constitutes an overview of the activity. Nonetheless, the workflow represents an essential activity in predictive simulation and modeling. VVUQ is complex and necessarily hierarchical in nature. The particular characteristics of VVUQ elements depend upon where the VVUQ activity takes place in the overall hierarchy of physics and models. In this chapter, we focus on the differences between and interplay among validation, calibration and UQ, as well as the difference between UQ and sensitivity analysis. The discussion in this chapter is at a relatively high level and attempts to explain the key issues associated with the overall conduct of VVUQ. The intention is that computational physicists can refer to this chapter for guidance regarding how VVUQ analyses fit into their efforts toward conducting predictive calculations.
The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNLs mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.