Publications

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Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

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Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

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This user’s guide documents capabilities in Sierra/SolidMechanics which remain “in-development” and thus are not tested and hardened to the standards of capabilities listed in Sierra/SM 5.4 User’s Guide. Capabilities documented herein are available in Sierra/SM for experimental use only until their official release. These capabilities include, but are not limited to, novel discretization approaches such as the conforming reproducing kernel (CRK) method, numerical fracture and failure modeling aids such as the extended finite element method (XFEM) and J-integral, explicit time step control techniques, dynamic mesh rebalancing, as well as a variety of new material models and finite element formulations.

Based on the rationale presented, nuclear criticality is improbable after salt creep causes compaction of criticality control overpacks (CCOs) disposed at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, an operating repository in bedded salt for the disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste from atomic energy defense activities. For most TRU waste, the possibility of post-closure criticality is exceedingly small either because the salt neutronically isolates TRU waste canisters or because closure of a disposal room from salt creep does not sufficiently compact the low mass of fissile material. The criticality potential has been updated here because of the introduction of CCOs, which may dispose up to 380 fissile gram equivalent plutonium-239 in each container. The criticality potential is evaluated through high-fidelity geomechanical modeling of a disposal room filled with CCOs during two representative conditions: (1) large salt block fall, and (2) gradual salt compaction (without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation to permit maximum room closure). Geomechanical models of rock fall demonstrate three tiers of CCOs are not greatly disrupted. Geomechanical models of gradual room closure from salt creep predict irregular arrays of closely packed CCOs after 1000 years, when room closure has asymptotically approached maximum compaction. Criticality models of spheres and cylinders of 380 fissile gram equivalent of plutonium (as oxide) at the predicted irregular spacing demonstrate that an array of CCOs is not critical when surrounded by salt and magnesium oxide, provided the amount of hydrogenous material shipped in the CCO (usually water and plastics) is controlled or boron carbide (a neutron poison) is mixed with the fissile contents.

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