This report examines the technical elements necessary to evaluate EBS concepts and perform thermal analysis of DOE-Managed SNF and HLW in the disposal settings of primary interest – argillite, crystalline, salt, and deep borehole. As the disposal design concept is composed of waste inventory, geologic setting, and engineered concept of operation, the engineered barrier system (EBS) falls into the last component of engineered concept of operation. The waste inventory for DOE-Managed HLW and SNF is closely examined, with specific attention to the number of waste packages, the size of waste packages, and the thermal output per package. As expected, the DOE-Managed HLW and SNF inventory has a much smaller volume, and hence smaller number of canisters, as well a lower thermal output, relative to a waste inventory that would include commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF). A survey of available data and methods from previous studies of thermal analysis indicates that, in some cases, thermo-hydrologic modeling will be necessary to appropriately address the problem. This report also outlines scope for FY16 work -- a key challenge identified is developing a methodology to effectively and efficiently evaluate EBS performance in each disposal setting on the basis of thermal analyses results.
This report is one follow-on to a study of reference geologic disposal design concepts (Hardin et al. 2011a). Based on an analysis of maximum temperatures, that study concluded that certain disposal concepts would require extended decay storage prior to emplacement, or the use of small waste packages, or both. The study used nominal values for thermal properties of host geologic media and engineered materials, demonstrating the need for uncertainty analysis to support the conclusions. This report is a first step that identifies the input parameters of the maximum temperature calculation, surveys published data on measured values, uses an analytical approach to determine which parameters are most important, and performs an example sensitivity analysis. Using results from this first step, temperature calculations planned for FY12 can focus on only the important parameters, and can use the uncertainty ranges reported here. The survey of published information on thermal properties of geologic media and engineered materials, is intended to be sufficient for use in generic calculations to evaluate the feasibility of reference disposal concepts. A full compendium of literature data is beyond the scope of this report. The term “uncertainty” is used here to represent both measurement uncertainty and spatial variability, or variability across host geologic units. For the most important parameters (e.g., buffer thermal conductivity) the extent of literature data surveyed samples these different forms of uncertainty and variability. Finally, this report is intended to be one chapter or section of a larger FY12 deliverable summarizing all the work on design concepts and thermal load management for geologic disposal (M3FT-12SN0804032, due 15Aug2012).
Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) of high-level radioactive wastes has been considered an option for geological isolation for many years (Hess et al. 1957). Recent advances in drilling technology have decreased costs and increased reliability for large-diameter (i.e., ≥50 cm [19.7”]) boreholes to depths of several kilometers (Beswick 2008; Beswick et al. 2014). These advances have therefore also increased the feasibility of the DBD concept (Brady et al. 2009; Cornwall 2015), and the current field test, introduced herein, is a demonstration of the DBD concept and these advances.
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) conducted an evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) related computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014). The current work examined main components of the computing system identified in the previous work (Lee and Hadgu, 2014) to ensure the operational readiness of the TSPA-LA model capability on the server cluster. The TSPA computing hardware and storage system were replaced in late 2014 to maintain core capability and improve computation efficiency. One floating license of GoldSim Version 9.60.300 was installed on the upgraded cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software was tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. All the TSPA-LA modeling cases were tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the upgraded 2014 server cluster (CL2014). All test runs were executed on multiple processors on the server cluster utilizing the GoldSim distributed processing capability, and all runs completed successfully. The model reproducibility verification was evaluated by two approaches: numerical value comparison and graphical comparison. The analysis demonstrated an excellent reproducibility of the TSPA-LA model runs on the upgraded server cluster. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA- LA type analysis.
This study has evaluated the technical feasibility of direct disposal in a geologic repository, of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) of existing designs. The authors, representing several national laboratories, considered waste isolation safety, engineering feasibility, thermal management, and postclosure criticality control. The 3-year study concludes that direct disposal is technically feasible for most DPCs, depending on the repository host geology. Postclosure criticality control, and thermal management strategies that allow permanent disposal within 150 years, are two of the most challenging aspects. This document summarizes technical results from a series of previous reports, and describes additional studies that can be done especially if site-specific information becomes available from one or more prospective repository sites.
This report provides two sets of calculations not presented in previous reports on the technical feasibility of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) disposal directly in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs): 1) thermal calculations for reference disposal concepts using larger 37-PWR size DPC-based waste packages, and 2) analysis and thermal calculations for underground vault-type storage and eventual disposal of DPCs. The reader is referred to the earlier reports (Hardin et al. 2011, 2012, 2013; Hardin and Voegele 2013) for contextual information on DPC direct disposal alternatives.
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was tasked to conduct an evaluation of the legacy computing systems of the now-closed Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, in the event that the License Application (LA) review by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is re-started and involves additional requests for information (RAIs). Six problem areas or components of the computing system were identified and subsequently resolved or improved to ensure the operational readiness of the TSPA-LA model capability on the server cluster. As part of this readiness review, the legacy TSPA computational cluster that was relocated from the SNL YMP Lead Lab Project Office in Las Vegas, Nevada to the SNL offices in Albuquerque, New Mexico was replaced with new hardware. Three floating licenses of Goldsim Version 9.60.300 were installed on the new cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software was tested and installed to support the TSPA- type analysis on the server cluster. TSPA-LA modeling cases were tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the current server cluster. All test runs were executed on multiple processors on the server cluster utilizing the Goldsim distributed processing capability, and all runs were completed successfully. The model reproducibility verification was evaluated by two approaches: numerical value comparison and graphical comparison, and the analysis demonstrated an excellent reproducibility of the TSPA-LA model runs on the server cluster. The current server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.
The use of integrated probabilistic risk assessment tools to evaluate the barrier capability of a natural barrier system (NBS) in a nuclear waste repository is presented. The integrated risk assessment tools encompass highly detailed process models for flow and transport, probabilistic performance assessment (PA), and database management. In this paper development of an integrated tool for the modeling of far-field radionuclide transport in a generic salt repository is discussed. The tool was developed by wrapping the flow and transport reservoir simulator (FEHM) with the uncertainty quantification and optimization code (DAKOTA).
Research on deep borehole disposal of high-level radioactive waste has indicated that the deep borehole disposal concept is a viable potential alternative to a mined repository system. Previous modeling indicates that thermally induced fluid flow associated with heat from the waste has the greatest potential for the upward transport of dissolved radionuclides. An updated thermal-hydrologic model of a deep borehole disposal system is constructed using a recently developed reference design, incorporating a more realistic heterogeneous representation of the hydrogeological system with depth-varying permeability and thermal conductivity, coupled stratification of salinity and fluid density, and arrays of up to 81 disposal boreholes. Results show that peak temperatures near the borehole occur within 20 years of disposal, with an extended period of elevated temperatures beyond 10, 000 years and a second, lower peak in temperature near the center of larger borehole arrays. Simulated vertical upward groundwater flux in the borehole and disturbed rock zone occurs in the waste disposal zone and overlying seal zone at greatest magnitude for about 100 years, but persists for an extended period of time. The persistence of simulated vertical groundwater flow beyond 1, 000 years increases with the number of disposal boreholes in the array. This persistence in flow may have important implications for the maximum number of disposal boreholes that could be safely emplaced at a single site.
This work develops a new approach for generating stochastic permeability fields from complex three-dimensional fracture networks to support physical and economic performance analyses of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The approach represents multiple fracture sets with different dips, orientations, apertures, spacing, and lengths by homogenizing discrete fracture permeabilities onto a regular grid using continuum methods. A previously developed algorithm is used for combining multiple fracture sets at arbitrary orientations into a full anisotropic permeability tensor for every grid block. Fracture properties for each grid cell can either be independently specified or spatially correlated using a variety of probability distributions. The generated stochastic permeability fields are used in mass and heat transport models to represent a variety of complex fracture networks to provide realistic simulations of long-term thermal performance.
Disposal of high-level radioactive waste, including spent nuclear fuel, in deep (3 to 5 km) boreholes is a potential option for safely isolating these wastes from the surface and near-surface environment. Existing drilling technology permits reliable and cost-effective construction of such deep boreholes. Conditions favorable for deep borehole disposal in crystalline basement rocks, including low permeability, high salinity, and geochemically reducing conditions, exist at depth in many locations, particularly in geologically stable continental regions. Isolation of waste depends, in part, on the effectiveness of borehole seals and potential alteration of permeability in the disturbed host rock surrounding the borehole. Coupled thermal-mechanical-hydrologic processes induced by heat from the radioactive waste may impact the disturbed zone near the borehole and borehole wall stability. Numerical simulations of the coupled thermal-mechanical response in the host rock surrounding the borehole were conducted with three software codes or combinations of software codes. Software codes used in the simulations were FEHM, JAS3D, Aria, and Adagio. Simulations were conducted for disposal of spent nuclear fuel assemblies and for the higher heat output of vitrified waste from the reprocessing of fuel. Simulations were also conducted for both isotropic and anisotropic ambient horizontal stress in the host rock. Physical, thermal, and mechanical properties representative of granite host rock at a depth of 4 km were used in the models. Simulation results indicate peak temperature increases at the borehole wall of about 30 C and 180 C for disposal of fuel assemblies and vitrified waste, respectively. Peak temperatures near the borehole occur within about 10 years and decline rapidly within a few hundred years and with distance. The host rock near the borehole is placed under additional compression. Peak mechanical stress is increased by about 15 MPa (above the assumed ambient isotropic stress of 100 MPa) at the borehole wall for the disposal of fuel assemblies and by about 90 MPa for vitrified waste. Simulated peak volumetric strain at the borehole wall is about 420 and 2600 microstrain for the disposal of fuel assemblies and vitrified waste, respectively. Stress and volumetric strain decline rapidly with distance from the borehole and with time. Simulated peak stress at and parallel to the borehole wall for the disposal of vitrified waste with anisotropic ambient horizontal stress is about 440 MPa, which likely exceeds the compressive strength of granite if unconfined by fluid pressure within the borehole. The relatively small simulated displacements and volumetric strain near the borehole suggest that software codes using a nondeforming grid provide an adequate approximation of mechanical deformation in the coupled thermal-mechanical model. Additional modeling is planned to incorporate the effects of hydrologic processes coupled to thermal transport and mechanical deformation in the host rock near the heated borehole.
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is an option to mitigate impacts of atmospheric carbon emission. Numerous factors are important in determining the overall effectiveness of long-term geologic storage of carbon, including leakage rates, volume of storage available, and system costs. Recent efforts have been made to apply an existing probabilistic performance assessment (PA) methodology developed for deep nuclear waste geologic repositories to evaluate the effectiveness of subsurface carbon storage (Viswanathan et al., 2008; Stauffer et al., 2009). However, to address the most pressing management, regulatory, and scientific concerns with subsurface carbon storage (CS), the existing PA methodology and tools must be enhanced and upgraded. For example, in the evaluation of a nuclear waste repository, a PA model is essentially a forward model that samples input parameters and runs multiple realizations to estimate future consequences and determine important parameters driving the system performance. In the CS evaluation, however, a PA model must be able to run both forward and inverse calculations to support optimization of CO{sub 2} injection and real-time site monitoring as an integral part of the system design and operation. The monitoring data must be continually fused into the PA model through model inversion and parameter estimation. Model calculations will in turn guide the design of optimal monitoring and carbon-injection strategies (e.g., in terms of monitoring techniques, locations, and time intervals). Under the support of Laboratory-Directed Research & Development (LDRD), a late-start LDRD project was initiated in June of Fiscal Year 2010 to explore the concept of an enhanced performance assessment system (EPAS) for carbon sequestration and storage. In spite of the tight time constraints, significant progress has been made on the project: (1) Following the general PA methodology, a preliminary Feature, Event, and Process (FEP) analysis was performed for a hypothetical CS system. Through this FEP analysis, relevant scenarios for CO{sub 2} release were defined. (2) A prototype of EPAS was developed by wrapping an existing multi-phase, multi-component reservoir simulator (TOUGH2) with an uncertainty quantification and optimization code (DAKOTA). (3) For demonstration, a probabilistic PA analysis was successfully performed for a hypothetical CS system based on an existing project in a brine-bearing sandstone. The work lays the foundation for the development of a new generation of PA tools for effective management of CS activities. At a top-level, the work supports energy security and climate change/adaptation by furthering the capability to effectively manage proposed carbon capture and sequestration activities (both research and development as well as operational), and it greatly enhances the technical capability to address this national problem. The next phase of the work will include (1) full capability demonstration of the EPAS, especially for data fusion, carbon storage system optimization, and process optimization of CO{sub 2} injection, and (2) application of the EPAS to actual carbon storage systems.