Jurisdictions around the world are enacting and enforcing an increasing number of policies to fight climate change, leading to higher penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage systems (ESSs) in the power grid. One of the biggest challenges associated with this process is the evaluation of the appropriate amount of ESS required to mitigate the variability of the VREs and achieve decarbonization goals of a particular jurisdiction. This report presents methodologies developed and results obtained for determining the minimum amount of ESS required to adequately serve load in a system where fossil fueled generators are being replaced by VREs over the next two decades. This technical analysis is performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the DOE Office of Electricity Energy Storage Program in collaboration with the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC). The Illinois MISO Zone 4 is used as a case study. Several boundary conditions are investigated in this analysis including capacity adequacy and energy adequacy to determine the quantity of ESS required for MISO Zone 4. Multiple scenarios are designed and evaluated to incorporate the impact of varying capacity values of VREs and on the resource adequacy of the system. Several retirement scenarios involving fossil-fueled assets are also considered. Based on the current plans of new additions and retirements of generating assets, the results of the technical analysis indicate that Illinois MISO Zone 4 will require a significant quantity of ESS to satisfy their electricity demand over the next two decades.
As large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities are currently being built and planned for locations in the U.S. with the greatest solar resource potential, an understanding of water use for construction and operations is needed as siting tends to target locations with low natural rainfall and where most existing freshwater is already appropriated. Using methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine water used in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance, an estimate of water used over the lifetime at the solar power plant is determined and applied to each watershed in six Southwestern states. Results indicate that that PV systems overall use little water, though construction usage is high compared to O&M water use over the lifetime of the facility. Also noted is a transition being made from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities that will significantly reduce operational water use at these facilities. Using these water use factors, estimates of future water demand for current and planned solar development was made. In efforts to determine where water could be a limiting factor in solar energy development, water availability, cost, and projected future competing demands were mapped for the six Southwestern states. Ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability.
The objective of this study is to develop a conceptual framework for establishing water leasing markets in New Mexico using the Mimbres River as a test case. Given the past and growing stress over water in New Mexico and the Mimbres River in particular, this work will develop a mechanism for the short term, efficient, temporary transfer of water from one user to another while avoiding adverse effects on any user not directly involved in the transaction (i.e., third party effects). Toward establishing a water leasing market, five basic tasks were performed, (1) a series of stakeholder meetings were conducted to identify and address concerns and interests of basin residents, (2) several gauges were installed on irrigation ditches to aid in the monitoring and management of water resources in the basin, (3) the hydrologic/market model and decision support interface was extended to include the Middle and Lower reaches of the Mimbres River, (4) experiments were conducted to aid in design of the water leasing market, and (5) a set of rules governing a water leasing market was drafted for future adoption by basin residents and the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer.
Resilience is a quality that allows human systems to rebound from shocks, such as droughts or famines, floods, conflict events, and others. Human resilience is tightly coupled to human ecology, including population dynamics, resource availability, and resource consumption. The Human Resilience Index (HRI) and Modeling (HRIM) Project provides a set of tools that help explore the links among human ecological conditions, human resilience, and conflict. The HRIM allows users to simulate future scenarios and mitigation strategies. Historic calculations using the HRI show numerous times and places where declining HRI values have corresponded to instability and conflict, supporting the hypothesis that poor human ecological conditions can contribute to conflict. Seven indicators are used to calculate the HRI: population growth rate, population density, caloric intake per capita, renewable fresh water per capita, arable land per capita, median age, and population health (including infant and child mortality and life expectancy). The HRIM provides a set of tools for evaluating alternative mitigation strategies to help improve human ecological conditions, increase resilience to shocks, and reduce the threat of instability and conflict.
The goal of this LDRD involves development of a system dynamics model to understand the interdependencies between water resource availability and water needs for production of biofuels. Specifically, this model focuses on availability and feasibility of non-traditional water sources from dairy wastewater, produced water from crude oil production and from coal-bed methane gas extraction for the production of algal-based biofuel. The conceptual simulation framework and historical data are based on two locales within New Mexico, the San Juan basin in the northwest and the Permian basin in the southeast, where oil and gas drilling have increased considerably in the last ten years. The overall water balance ignores both transportation options and water chemistry and is broken down by county level. The resulting model contains an algal growth module, a dairy module, an oil production module, and a gas production module. A user interface is also created for controlling the adjustable parameters in the model. Our preliminary investigation indicates a cyclical demand for non-fresh water due to the cyclical nature of algal biomass production and crop evapotranspiration. The wastewater from the dairy industry is not a feasible non-fresh water source because the agricultural water demand for cow's dry feed far exceeds the amount generated at the dairy. The uncertainty associated with the water demand for cow's dry matter intake is the greatest in this model. The oil- and gas-produced water, ignoring the quality, provides ample supply for water demand in algal biomass production. There remains work to address technical challenges associated with coupling the appropriate non-fresh water source to the local demand.