Publications

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Extreme meteorological events, such as hurricanes and floods, cause significant infrastructure damage and, as a result, prolonged grid outages. To mitigate the negative effect of these outages and enhance the resilience of communities, microgrids consisting of solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage (ES) technologies, and backup diesel generation are being considered. Furthermore, it is necessary to take into account how the extreme event affects the systems' performance during the outage, often referred to as black-sky conditions. In this paper, an optimization model is introduced to properly size ES and PV technologies to meet various duration of grid outages for selected critical infrastructure while considering black-sky conditions. A case study of the municipality of Villalba, Puerto Rico is presented to identify the several potential microgrid configurations that increase the community's resilience. Sensitivity analyses are performed around the grid outage durations and black-sky conditions to better decide what factors should be considered when scoping potential microgrids for community resilience.

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Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

The penetration of renewable energy resources (RER) and energy storage systems (ESS) into the power grid has been accelerated in recent times due to the aggressive emission and RER penetration targets. The Integrated resource planning (IRP) framework can help in ensuring long-term resource adequacy while satisfying RER integration and emission reduction targets in a cost-effective and reliable manner. In this paper, we present pIRP (probabilistic Integrated Resource Planning), an open-source Python-based software tool designed for optimal portfolio planning for an RER and ESS rich future grid and for addressing the capacity expansion problem. The tool, which is planned to be released publicly, with its ESS and RER modeling capabilities along with enhanced uncertainty handling make it one of the more advanced non-commercial IRP tools available currently. Additionally, the tool is equipped with an intuitive graphical user interface and expansive plotting capabilities. Impacts of uncertainties in the system are captured using Monte Carlo simulations and lets the users analyze hundreds of scenarios with detailed scenario reports. A linear programming based architecture is adopted which ensures sufficiently fast solution time while considering hundreds of scenarios and characterizing profile risks with varying levels of RER and ESS penetration levels. Results for a test case using data from parts of the Eastern Interconnection are provided in this paper to demonstrate the capabilities offered by the tool.

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