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Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.

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Stochastic spectral methods for efficient Bayesian solution of inverse problems

Journal of Computational Physics

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

We present a reformulation of the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, that seeks to accelerate Bayesian inference by using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to represent random variables. Evaluation of integrals over the unknown parameter space is recast, more efficiently, as Monte Carlo sampling of the random variables underlying the PC expansion. We evaluate the utility of this technique on a transient diffusion problem arising in contaminant source inversion. The accuracy of posterior estimates is examined with respect to the order of the PC representation, the choice of PC basis, and the decomposition of the support of the prior. The computational cost of the new scheme shows significant gains over direct sampling. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Model reduction and physical understanding of slowly oscillating processes: The circadian cycle

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

Goussis, Dimitris A.; Najm, Habib N.

A differential system that models the circadian rhythm in Drosophila is analyzed with the computational singular perturbation (CSP) algorithm. Reduced nonstiff models of prespecified accuracy are constructed, the form and size of which are time-dependent. When compared with conventional asymptotic analysis, CSP exhibits superior performance in constructing reduced models, since it can algorithmically identify and apply all the required order of magnitude estimates and algebraic manipulations. A similar performance is demonstrated by CSP in generating data that allow for the acquisition of physical understanding. It is shown that the processes driving the circadian cycle are (i) mRNA translation into monomer protein, and monomer protein destruction by phosphorylation and degradation (along the largest portion of the cycle); and (ii) mRNA synthesis (along a short portion of the cycle). These are slow processes. Their action in driving the cycle is allowed by the equilibration of the fastest processes; (1) the monomer dimerization with the dimer dissociation (along the largest portion of the cycle); and (2) the net production of monomer+dimmer proteins with that of mRNA (along the short portion of the cycle). Additional results (regarding the time scales of the established equilibria, their origin, the rate limiting steps, the couplings among the variables, etc.) highlight the utility of CSP for automated identification of the important underlying dynamical features, otherwise accessible only for simple systems whose various suitable simplifications can easily be recognized. © 2006 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

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Results 401–425 of 433
Results 401–425 of 433