Publications

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In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

The study focuses on source region electromagnetic pulse (EMP), and provides considerations regarding the impact from an EMP due to a low-altitude nuclear denotation.

The threat of a large-scale electromagnetic event having a negative impact on the electric grid is real. Whether human-caused, via the detonation of a nuclear device, or natural, via a high-intensity burst of solar radiation, our historic experience with these phenomena indicates that as a global community, we should be prepared for such events and know how to mitigate their impacts. Current studies and related discussions provide a wide range of damage assessments for these events. We recommend continuing current technical investigations and research as well as strengthening collaboration between stakeholders and experts. This would ensure future threats are addressed in a timely and effective manner.

The objective of this study was to conduct a series of tests looking at the deposition and resuspension of aerosol particles deposited onto multiple representative substrate surfaces for a range of particle sizes under varying environmental conditions. The benefit of this study is to provide additional insight into the understanding of early time resuspension from different mechanisms and compare to existing literature. The resuspension methods utilized in this study were full-scale and the substrates were representative of real- world ground level conditions. Multiple experiments were conducted to assess the impact on resuspension from the varying substrates and mechanisms. The results of this study show variations in the size distribution of aerosol as a function of height from the source resuspension factors. Additionally, the aerosolized mass concentration and resuspension factor were evaluated. The maximum resuspension factor was found to be on the order of 10 ^-4 m ^-1 which is higher than most resuspension factors found in literature but represents idealized conditions due to the well constrained experimental setup.

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