Publications

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Graph algorithms enable myriad large-scale applications including cybersecurity, social network analysis, resource allocation, and routing. The scalability of current graph algorithm implementations on conventional computing architectures are hampered by the demise of Moore’s law. We present a theoretical framework for designing and assessing the performance of graph algorithms executing in networks of spiking artificial neurons. Although spiking neural networks (SNNs) are capable of general-purpose computation, few algorithmic results with rigorous asymptotic performance analysis are known. SNNs are exceptionally well-motivated practically, as neuromorphic computing systems with 100 million spiking neurons are available, and systems with a billion neurons are anticipated in the next few years. Beyond massive parallelism and scalability, neuromorphic computing systems offer energy consumption orders of magnitude lower than conventional high-performance computing systems. We employ our framework to design and analyze new spiking algorithms for shortest path and dynamic programming problems. Our neuromorphic algorithms are message-passing algorithms relying critically on data movement for computation. For fair and rigorous comparison with conventional algorithms and architectures, which is challenging but paramount, we develop new models of data-movement in conventional computing architectures. This allows us to prove polynomial-factor advantages, even when we assume a SNN consisting of a simple grid-like network of neurons. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first examples of a rigorous asymptotic computational advantage for neuromorphic computing.

This report summarizes the activities performed as part of the Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) Grand Challenge LDRD project. We provide an overview of the research done in this project, including work on cyber emulation, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. We present examples of integrated analyses performed on two case studies: a network scanning/detection study and a malware command and control study. We highlight the importance of experimental workflows and list references of papers and presentations developed under this project. We outline lessons learned and suggestions for future work.

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We present a theoretical framework for designing and assessing the performance of algorithms executing in networks consisting of spiking artificial neurons. Although spiking neural networks (SNNs) are capable of general-purpose computation, few algorithmic results with rigorous asymptotic performance analysis are known. SNNs are exceptionally well-motivated practically, as neuromorphic computing systems with 100 million spiking neurons are available, and systems with a billion neurons are anticipated in the next few years. Beyond massive parallelism and scalability, neuromorphic computing systems offer energy consumption orders of magnitude lower than conventional high-performance computing systems. We employ our framework to design and analyze neuromorphic graph algorithms, focusing on shortest path problems. Our neuromorphic algorithms are message-passing algorithms relying critically on data movement for computation, and we develop data-movement lower bounds for conventional algorithms. A fair and rigorous comparison with conventional algorithms and architectures is challenging but paramount. We prove a polynomial-factor advantage even when we assume an SNN consisting of a simple grid-like network of neurons. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first examples of a provable asymptotic computational advantage for neuromorphic computing.

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Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

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Securing cyber systems is of paramount importance, but rigorous, evidence-based techniques to support decision makers for high-consequence decisions have been missing. The need for bringing rigor into cybersecurity is well-recognized, but little progress has been made over the last decades. We introduce a new project, SECURE, that aims to bring more rigor into cyber experimentation. The core idea is to follow the footsteps of computational science and engineering and expand similar capabilities to support rigorous cyber experimentation. In this paper, we review the cyber experimentation process, present the research areas that underlie our effort, discuss the underlying research challenges, and report on our progress to date. This paper is based on work in progress, and we expect to have more complete results for the conference.

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Increasing penetration levels of renewables have transformed how power systems are operated. High levels of uncertainty in production make it increasingly difficulty to guarantee operational feasibility; instead, constraints may only be satisfied with high probability. We present a chance-constrained economic dispatch model that efficiently integrates energy storage and high renewable penetration to satisfy renewable portfolio requirements. Specifically, we require that wind energy contribute at least a prespecified proportion of the total demand and that the scheduled wind energy is deliverable with high probability. We develop an approximate partial sample average approximation (PSAA) framework to enable efficient solution of large-scale chance-constrained economic dispatch problems. Computational experiments on the IEEE-24 bus system show that the proposed PSAA approach is more accurate, closer to the prescribed satisfaction tolerance, and approximately 100 times faster than standard sample average approximation. Finally, the improved efficiency of our PSAA approach enables solution of a larger WECC-240 test system in minutes.

Stochastic economic dispatch models address uncertainties in forecasts of renewable generation output by considering a finite number of realizations drawn from a stochastic process model, typically via Monte Carlo sampling. Accurate evaluations of expectations or higher order moments for quantities of interest, e.g., generating cost, can require a prohibitively large number of samples. We propose an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling based on polynomial chaos expansions. These representations enable efficient and accurate propagation of uncertainties in model parameters, using sparse quadrature methods. We also use Karhunen-Loève expansions for efficient representation of uncertain renewable energy generation that follows geographical and temporal correlations derived from historical data at each wind farm. Considering expected production cost, we demonstrate that the proposed approach can yield several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost for solving stochastic economic dispatch relative to Monte Carlo sampling, for a given target error threshold.

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Stochastic unit commitment models typically handle uncertainties in forecast demand by considering a finite number of realizations from a stochastic process model for loads. Accurate evaluations of expectations or higher moments for the quantities of interest require a prohibitively large number of model evaluations. In this paper we propose an alternative approach based on using surrogate models valid over the range of the forecast uncertainty. We consider surrogate models based on Polynomial Chaos expansions, constructed using sparse quadrature methods. Considering expected generation cost, we demonstrate that the approach can lead to several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost relative to using Monte Carlo sampling on the original model, for a given target error threshold.

Stochastic unit commitment models typically handle uncertainties in forecast demand by considering a finite number of realizations from a stochastic process model for loads. Accurate evaluations of expectations or higher moments for the quantities of interest require a prohibitively large number of model evaluations. In this paper we propose an alternative approach based on using surrogate models valid over the range of the forecast uncertainty. We consider surrogate models based on Polynomial Chaos expansions, constructed using sparse quadrature methods. Considering expected generation cost, we demonstrate that the approach can lead to several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost relative to using Monte Carlo sampling on the original model, for a given target error threshold.

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