The purpose of this effort is to explore where the availability of water could be a limiting factor in the siting of new electric power generation. To support this analysis, water availability is mapped at the county level for the conterminous United States (3109 counties). Five water sources are individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water (western U.S. only), municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in non-thermoelectric consumptive water demand to 2035. Finally, the water availability metrics are accompanied by estimated costs associated with utilizing that particular supply of water. Ultimately these data sets are being developed for use in the National Renewable Energy Laboratories' (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, designed to investigate the likely deployment of new energy installations in the U.S., subject to a number of constraints, particularly water.
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has important implications relative to future thermoelectric water use. A bounding analysis is performed using past greenhouse gas emission policy proposals and assumes either all effected capacity retires (lower water use bound) or is retrofitted (upper bound). The analysis is performed in the context of recent trends in electric power generation expansion, namely high penetration of natural gas and renewables along with constrained cooling system options. Results indicate thermoelectric freshwater withdrawals nationwide could increase by roughly 1% or decrease by up to 60% relative to 2009 levels, while consumption could increase as much as 21% or decrease as much as 28%. To identify where changes in freshwater use might be problematic at a regional level, electric power production has been mapped onto watersheds with limited water availability (where consumption exceeds 70% of gauged streamflow). Results suggest that between 0.44 and 0.96 Mm3/d of new thermoelectric freshwater consumption could occur in watersheds with limited water availability, while power plant retirements in these watersheds could yield 0.90 to 1.0 Mm3/d of water savings.
As large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities are currently being built and planned for locations in the U.S. with the greatest solar resource potential, an understanding of water use for construction and operations is needed as siting tends to target locations with low natural rainfall and where most existing freshwater is already appropriated. Using methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine water used in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance, an estimate of water used over the lifetime at the solar power plant is determined and applied to each watershed in six Southwestern states. Results indicate that that PV systems overall use little water, though construction usage is high compared to O&M water use over the lifetime of the facility. Also noted is a transition being made from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities that will significantly reduce operational water use at these facilities. Using these water use factors, estimates of future water demand for current and planned solar development was made. In efforts to determine where water could be a limiting factor in solar energy development, water availability, cost, and projected future competing demands were mapped for the six Southwestern states. Ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability.
Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.