Publications

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Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Toward this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.

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While long-term regional electricity transmission planning has traditionally focused on cost, infrastructure utilization, environmental impact, and reliability, the availability of water is an emerging issue. Toward this growing need, thermoelectric expansion should consider competing demands from other water use sectors balanced with fresh and non-traditional water supplies subject to climate variability. To address this need the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability supported an integrated planning project with funding through the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (2009). Specifically, an integrated energy-water analysis was performed to support transmission system planners in the Western and Texas Interconnections to explore the potential implications of water availability and cost for long-term transmission planning. The project brought together electric transmission planners (e.g., Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)) with western water planners (e.g., Western Governors' Association and the Western States Water Council). Efforts were organized into ten specific tasks: (1) project coordination and outreach; (2) thermoelectric water use; (3) non-thermoelectric water use; (4) water availability; (5) water cost; (6) environmental risk; (7) climate variability; (8) energy for water; (9) decision support system interface; and, (10) transmission planning support. Major accomplishments associated with this effort include: For the first time water availability was used to inform generation expansion planning by WECC and ERCOT. For the first time, projections of intensifying drought and its effect on reservoir levels, and thermal effluent discharge permitting were used to inform operational and expansion planning by ERCOT. Water withdrawal and consumption were characterized for each power plant in the WECC and ERCOT service areas/regions. Water use factors were also developed for a range of unit processes that allowed projection of future water demands related to electric generation expansion planning. Working with state water managers current and future water use (withdrawal and consumption) were projected throughout the Western United States at an 8-digit Hydraulic Unit Code (HUC-8) level (over 1200 watersheds). In a similar fashion water availability and cost were mapped across the Western United States. Considered were five different sources of water: unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Water basins (at the HUC-8 level) were mapped across the Western United States with regard to their potential for conflicts between aquatic and riparian species and habitats listed under the Endangered Species Act and water availability for future energy development. Water planners were engaged through the Western States Water Council and thus reflects their membership of the 17 contiguous western states (i.e., Texas up through the Dakotas and West). Power plants at greatest risk to the impacts of drought were identified. The analysis considered the hazards of low flows, insufficient reservoir storage, and elevated water temperatures under intensifying drought conditions projected for the future. The electricity used to provide water-related services was mapped at a county level throughout the Western U.S. Considered was the electricity required for interbasin conveyance, agricultural pumping, drinking water and wastewater services. To communicate our results the project has produced 6 journal articles, 1 book chapter, 11 reports, and 47 presentations at related conferences.

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Energy production requires water, while the conveyance, storage, and treatment of water requires energy—this is the energy-water nexus. The importance of this nexus has recently been highlighted by droughts reducing hydropower production, heat waves impacting stream water temperatures forcing nuclear and coal-fired power plants to suspend operations, floods and hurricanes damaging energy infrastructure, and the denial of new power plant permits due to limited water availability. All this while the energy intensity of the water sector is increasing as water is moved from more distant locations and increasing water treatment is required. Tackling this energy-water nexus will require significant coordination between water and energy managers from the local to the federal level.

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In the Southwest and Southern Rocky Mountains (SWSRM), energy production, energy resource extraction, and other high volume uses depend on water supply from systems that are highly vulnerable to extreme, coupled hydro-ecosystem-climate events including prolonged drought, flooding, degrading snow cover, forest die off, and wildfire. These vulnerabilities, which increase under climate change, present a challenge for energy and resource planners in the region with the highest population growth rate in the nation. Currently, analytical tools are designed to address individual aspects of these regional energy and water vulnerabilities. Further, these tools are not linked, severely limiting the effectiveness of each individual tool. Linking established tools, which have varying degrees of spatial and temporal resolution as well as modeling objectives, and developing next-generation capabilities where needed would provide a unique and replicable platform for regional analyses of climate-water-ecosystem-energy interactions, while leveraging prior investments and current expertise (both within DOE and across other Federal agencies).

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This paper is the output from SNL’s involvement in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), the Colorado River Energy Distributors Association (CREDA), and the Upper Colorado River Commission’s (UCRC) sponsored Phase II work to establish market and non-market values (NMV’s) of water and hydropower associated with Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations and the Colorado River ecosystem. It describes the purpose and need to develop a systems model for the Colorado River Basin that includes valuations in the economic, hydrologic, environmental, social, and cultural sectors. It outlines the benefits and unique features associated with such a model and provides a roadmap of how a systems model would be developed and implemented. While not meant to serve as a full development plan, the ideas and concepts herein represent what the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) research team believes is the most impactful and effective path forward to address an ever increasing complex set of problems that occur at the basin-scale and beyond.

A significant fraction of our nation's electricity use goes to lift, convey, and treat water, while the resulting expenditures on electricity represent a key budgetary consideration for water service providers. To improve understanding of the electricity-for-water interdependency, electricity used in providing water services is mapped at the regional, state and county level for the 17-conterminous states in the Western U.S. This study is unique in estimating electricity use for large-scale conveyance and agricultural pumping as well as mapping these electricity uses along with that for drinking and wastewater services at a state and county level. Results indicate that drinking and wastewater account for roughly 2% of total West-wide electricity use, while an additional 1.2% is consumed by large-scale conveyance projects and 2.6% is consumed by agricultural pumping. The percent of electricity used for water services varies strongly by state with some as high as 34%, while other states expend less than 1%. Every county in the West uses some electricity for water services; however, there is a large disparity in use ranging from 10 MWh/yr to 5.8 TWh/yr. These results support long-term transmission planning in the Western U.S. by characterizing an important component of the electric load. © 2014 American Chemical Society.

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The purpose of this effort is to explore where the availability of water could be a limiting factor in the siting of new electric power generation. To support this analysis, water availability is mapped at the county level for the conterminous United States (3109 counties). Five water sources are individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water (western U.S. only), municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in non-thermoelectric consumptive water demand to 2035. Finally, the water availability metrics are accompanied by estimated costs associated with utilizing that particular supply of water. Ultimately these data sets are being developed for use in the National Renewable Energy Laboratories' (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, designed to investigate the likely deployment of new energy installations in the U.S., subject to a number of constraints, particularly water.