Publications

Modern society's physical health depends vitally upon a number of real, interdependent, critical infrastructure networks that deliver power, petroleum, natural gas,water, and communications. Its economic health depends on a number of other infrastructure networks, some virtual and some real, that link residences, industries, commercial sectors, and transportation sectors. The continued prosperity and national security of the US depends on our ability to understand the vulnerabilities of and analyze the performance of both the individual infrastructures and the entire interconnected system of infrastructures. Only then can we respond to potential disruptions in a timely and effective manner. Collaborative efforts among Sandia, other government agencies, private industry, and academia have resulted in realistic models for many of the individual component infrastructures. In this paper, we propose an innovative modeling and analysis framework to study the entire system of physical and economic infrastructures. That framework uses the existing individual models together with system dynamics, functional models, and nonlinear optimization algorithms. We describe this framework and demonstrate its potential use to analyze, and propose a response for, a hypothetical disruption.

Concepts from Complexity Science are valuable and allow a simulation approach for critical infrastructures that is flexible and has wide ranging applications.

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Abstract not provided.

This report defines and defends the basic framework, methodology, and associated input parameters for modeling plant uptake of radionuclides for use in Performance Assessment (PA) activities of Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). PAs are used to help determine whether waste disposal configurations meet applicable regulatory standards for the protection of human health, the environment, or both. Plants adapted to the arid climate of the NTS are able to rapidly capture infiltrating moisture. In addition to capturing soil moisture, plant roots absorb nutrients, minerals, and heavy metals, transporting them within the plant to the above-ground biomass. In this fashion, plant uptake affects the movement of radionuclides. The plant uptake model presented reflects rooting characteristics important to plant uptake, biomass turnover rates, and the ability of plants to uptake radionuclides from the soil. Parameters are provided for modeling plant uptake and estimating surface contaminant flux due to plant uptake under both current and potential future climate conditions with increased effective soil moisture. The term ''effective moisture'' is used throughout this report to indicate the soil moisture that is available to plants and is intended to be inclusive of all the variables that control soil moisture at a site (e.g., precipitation, temperature, soil texture, and soil chemistry). Effective moisture is a concept used to simplify a number of complex, interrelated soil processes for which there are too little data to model actual plant available moisture. The PA simulates both the flux of radionuclides across the land surface and the potential dose to humans from that flux. Surface flux is modeled here as the amount of soil contamination that is transferred from the soil by roots and incorporated into aboveground biomass. Movement of contaminants to the surface is the only transport mechanism evaluated with the model presented here. Parameters necessary for estimating surface contaminant flux due to native plants expected to inhabit the NTS RWMSS are developed in this report. The model is specific to the plant communities found at the NTS and is designed for both short-term (<1,000 years) and long-term (>1,000 years) modeling efforts. While the model has been crafted for general applicability to any NTS PA, the key radionuclides considered are limited to the transuranic (TRU) wastes disposed of at the NTS.

A Level III Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been performed for LaSalle Unit 2 under the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) and the Phenomenology and Risk Uncertainty Evaluation Program (PRUEP). This report documents the phenomenological calculations and sources of. uncertainty in the calculations performed with HELCOR in support of the Level II portion of the PRA. These calculations are an integral part of the Level II analysis since they provide quantitative input to the Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) and Source Term Model (LASSOR). However, the uncertainty associated with the code results must be considered in the use of the results. The MELCOR calculations performed include four integrated calculations: (1) a high-pressure short-term station blackout, (2) a low-pressure short-term station blackout, (3) an intermediate-term station blackout, and (4) a long-term station blackout. Several sensitivity studies investigating the effect of variations in containment failure size and location, as well as hydrogen ignition concentration are also documented.