Publications

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The fast and unrelenting spread of wireless telecommunication devices has changed the landscape of the telecommunication world, as we know it. Today we find that most users have access to both wireline and wireless communication devices. This widespread availability of alternate modes of communication is adding, on one hand, to a redundancy in networks, yet, on the other hand, has cross network impacts during overloads and disruptions. This being the case, it behooves network designers and service providers to understand how this redundancy works so that it can be better utilized in emergency conditions where the need for redundancy is critical. In this paper, we examine the scope of this redundancy as expressed by telecommunications availability to users under different failure scenarios. We quantify the interaction of wireline and wireless networks during network failures and traffic overloads. Developed as part of a Department of Homeland Security Infrastructure Protection (DHS IP) project, the Network Simulation Modeling and Analysis Research Tool (N-SMART) was used to perform this study. The product of close technical collaboration between the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) and Lucent Technologies, N-SMART supports detailed wireline and wireless network simulations and detailed user calling behavior.

The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 12 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2001 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of ''what if'' scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

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Surface and groundwater resources do not recognize political boundaries. Where nature and boundary cross, tension over shared water resources can erupt. Such tension is exacerbated in regions where demand approaches or exceeds sustainable supplies of water. Establishing equitable management strategies can help prevent and resolve conflict over shared water resources. This paper describes a methodology for addressing transboundary water issues predicated on the integration of monitoring and modeling within a framework of cooperation. Cooperative monitoring begins with agreement by international scientists and/or policy makers on transboundary monitoring goals and strategies; it leads to the process of obtaining and sharing agreed-upon information among parties with the purpose of providing verifiable and secure data. Cooperative modeling is the process by which the parties jointly interpret the data, forecast future events and trends, and quantify cause and effect relationships. Together, cooperative monitoring and modeling allow for the development and assessment of alternative management and remediation strategies that could form the basis of regional watershed agreements or treaties. An example of how this multifaceted approach might be used to manage a shared water resource is presented for the Kura River basin in the Caucasus.

The authors reconceptualize macro modified invasion percolation (MMIP) at the near pore (NP) scale and apply it to simulate the non-wetting phase invasion experiments of Glass et al [in review] conducted in macro-heterogeneous porous media. For experiments where viscous forces were non-negligible, they redefine the total pore filling pressure to include viscous losses within the invading phase as well as the viscous influence to decrease randomness imposed by capillary forces at the front. NP-MMIP exhibits the complex invasion order seen experimentally with characteristic alternations between periods of gravity stabilized and destabilized invasion growth controlled by capillary barriers. The breaching of these barriers and subsequent pore scale fingering of the non-wetting phase is represented extremely well as is the saturation field evolution, and total volume invaded.

The authors designed and conducted experiments in a heterogeneous sand pack where gravity-destabilized nonwetting phase invasion (CO{sub 2} and TCE) could be recorded using high resolution light transmission methods. The heterogeneity structure was designed to be reminiscent of fluvial channel lag cut-and-fill architecture and contain a series of capillary barriers. As invasion progressed, nonwetting phase structure developed a series of fingers and pools; behind the growing front they found nonwetting phase saturation to pulsate in certain regions when viscous forces were low. Through a scale analysis, they derive a series of length scales that describe finger diameter, pool height and width, and regions where pulsation occurs within a heterogeneous porous medium. In all cases, they find that the intrinsic pore scale nature of the invasion process and resulting structure must be incorporated into the analysis to explain experimental results. The authors propose a simple macro-scale structural growth model that assembles length scales for sub-structures to delineate nonwetting phase migration from a source into a heterogeneous domain. For such a model applied at the field scale for DNAPL migration, they expect capillary and gravity forces within the complex subsurface lithology to play the primary roles with viscous forces forming a perturbation on the inviscid phase structure.

A comprehensive critical infrastructure analysis of the People`s Republic of China was performed to address questions about China`s ability to meet its long-term grain requirements and energy needs and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in China likely to result from increased agricultural production and energy use. Four dynamic computer simulation models of China`s infrastructures--water, agriculture, energy and greenhouse gas--were developed to simulate, respectively, the hydrologic budgetary processes, grain production and consumption, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in China through 2025. The four models were integrated into a state-of-the-art comprehensive critical infrastructure model for all of China. This integrated model simulates diverse flows of commodities, such as water and greenhouse gas, between the separate models to capture the overall dynamics of the integrated system. The model was used to generate projections of China`s available water resources and expected water use for 10 river drainage regions representing 100% of China`s mean annual runoff and comprising 37 major river basins. These projections were used to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in the three end-use sectors--urban, industrial, and agricultural--through the year 2025. Projections of the all-China demand for the three major grains (corn, wheat, and rice), meat, and other (other grains and fruits and vegetables) were also generated. Each geographic region`s share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of each region`s share of historic grain production) was calculated in order to assess the land and water resources in each region required to meet that demand. Growth in energy use in six historically significant sectors and growth in greenhouse gas loading were projected for all of China.

We introduce an up-scaled, buoyant invasion percolation model (UIP) for application to non-wetting, dense, non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) migration at the geologic formation scale within the saturated zone of an aquifer. The UEP model incorporates a gravitational potential to model the displacement of fluids of different densities and can be used for either LNAPLs (lighter than water) or DNAPLs (denser than water). We demonstrate model behavior in a simulated braided stream deposit. Simulations show the influence of textural changes across layers and gravity forces in controlling DNAPL migration. While our results are encouraging, the application of this up-scaled percolation model requires a series of tests both in the laboratory and in the field before judgment of sufficient validity for its intended purpose is achieved.

Multiple tracer techniques were used to estimate recharge rates through unsaturated alluvium beneath the Greater Confinement Disposal site, a waste disposal site located in Frenchman Flat, on the Nevada Test Site. Three tracers of soil water movement -- meteoric chloride, stable isotopes of water, and cosmogenic chlorine-36 -- yielded consistent results indicating that recharge rates were negligible for the purpose of performance assessment at the site.

Site characterization is an integral component of any environmental assessment or restoration project. However, it is often difficult to know how to prioritize site characterization activities. In the absence of a preliminary analysis, site characterization decisions are sometimes guided by little more than intuition. The objective of this paper is to show that a Performance Assessment Methodology, used very early in a project, can be a useful tool for guiding site characterization activities. As an example, a ``preliminary`` performance assessment for the Greater Confinement Disposal project is used to demonstrate implementation of the methodology.