Publications

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Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation assessment tools have the potential to contribute significantly to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that lead to proliferation resistance. We suggest that these limitations flow substantially from weaknesses in the foundations of existing methodologies--the initial data inputs. In most existing methodologies, little consideration has been given to the utilization of varying types of inputs--particularly the mixing of subjective and objective data--or to identifying, understanding, and untangling relationships and dependencies between inputs. To address these concerns, a model set of inputs is suggested that could potentially be employed in multiple approaches. We present an input classification scheme and the initial results of testing for relationships between these inputs. We will discuss how classifying and testing the relationship between these inputs can help strengthen tools to assess the proliferation risk of nuclear fuel cycle processes, systems, and facilities.

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This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 12 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2001 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of ''what if'' scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

The goal of the Russian Navy Fuels Program is to incorporate nuclear fuel that is in the custody of the Russian Navy into a materials protection, control and accounting program. In addition to applying MPC and A upgrades to existing facilities, a program is underway to train site personnel in MPC and A activities. The goal is to assure that the upgraded facilities are managed, operated and maintained in an effective, sustainable manner. Training includes both the conceptual and necessary operational aspects of the systems and equipment. The project began with a Needs Assessment to identify priorities and objectives of required training. This led to the creation of a series of classes developed by Kurchatov Institute. One course was developed to allow attendees to get a general understanding of goals and objectives of nuclear MPC and A systems in the context of the Russian Navy. A follow-on course provided the detailed skills necessary for the performance of specialized duties. Parallel sessions with hands-on exercises provided the specific training needed for different personnel requirements. The courses were presented at KI facilities in Moscow. This paper reviews the work to date and future plans for this program.