Publications

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Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Critical infrastructures underpin the domestic security, health, safety and economic well being of the United States. They are large, widely dispersed, mostly privately owned systems operated under a mixture of federal, state and local government departments, laws and regulations. While there currently are enormous pressures to secure all aspects of all critical infrastructures immediately, budget realities limit available options. The purpose of this study is to provide a clear framework for systematically analyzing and prioritizing resources to most effectively secure US critical infrastructures from terrorist threats. It is a scalable framework (based on the interplay of consequences, threats and vulnerabilities) that can be applied at the highest national level, the component level of an individual infrastructure, or anywhere in between. This study also provides a set of key findings and a recommended approach for framework application. In addition, this study develops three laptop computer-based tools to assist with framework implementation-a Risk Assessment Credibility Tool, a Notional Risk Prioritization Tool, and a County Prioritization tool. This study's tools and insights are based on Sandia National Laboratories' many years of experience in risk, consequence, threat and vulnerability assessments, both in defense- and critical infrastructure-related areas.

For the last ten years, the Japanese High-Level Nuclear Waste (HLW) repository program has focused on assessing the feasibility of a basic repository concept, which resulted in the recently published H12 Report. As Japan enters the implementation phase, a new organization must identify, screen and choose potential repository sites. Thus, a rapid mechanism for determining the likelihood of site suitability is critical. The threshold approach, described here, is a simple mechanism for defining the likelihood that a site is suitable given estimates of several critical parameters. We rely on the results of a companion paper, which described a probabilistic performance assessment simulation of the HLW reference case in the H12 report. The most critical two or three input parameters are plotted against each other and treated as spatial variables. Geostatistics is used to interpret the spatial correlation, which in turn is used to simulate multiple realizations of the parameter value maps. By combining an array of realizations, we can look at the probability that a given site, as represented by estimates of this combination of parameters, would be good host for a repository site.

Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.

The framework is versatile and the generalized approach has worked well for a suite of evaluations or as a foundation for evaluation tools including developing the SEDSS computer software system for evaluating site safety for EPA Superfund problems, NRC Low-Level Nuclear Waste facility siting, and UMTRA site remediation decisions; iteration through the performance assessment of the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility; and optimizing data collection for DNAPL problems. In particular, the SEDSS computer system makes a portion of these tools accessible for broad scale application. Development of both details of the process and computer tools to support individual steps continues.