Publications

Results 26–50 of 95

Search results

Jump to search filters

Examining how perception of external threat influences the popularity of government leaders

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Bernard, Michael L.; Naugle, Asmeret B.

This paper seeks to explore the conditions where leaders from open democracies to authoritarian states become more or less popular in response to perceived economic and social threats to society, along with increases in societal (economic and social) hardship and group polarization effects. To further explore these conditions, we used a psycho-social approach to develop a preliminary conceptual model of how the perception of threats, changes in societal conditions, and the polarization of society can concurrently influence the popularity of a government leader.

More Details
TYPE Conference Poster YEAR 2018
DOIDOIOSTIOSTIScopusScopus

Recommended Research Directions for Improving the Validation of Complex Systems Models

Vugrin, Eric D.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Swiler, Laura P.; Finley, Patrick D.; Flanagan, Tatiana P.; Naugle, Asmeret B.; Tsao, Jeffrey Y.; Verzi, Stephen J.

Improved validation for models of complex systems has been a primary focus over the past year for the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge. This document describes a set of research directions that are the result of distilling those ideas into three categories of research -- epistemic uncertainty, strong tests, and value of information. The content of this document can be used to transmit valuable information to future research activities, update the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge's roadmap, inform the upcoming FY18 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) call and research proposals, and facilitate collaborations between Sandia and external organizations. The recommended research directions can provide topics for collaborative research, development of proposals, workshops, and other opportunities.

More Details
TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2017
DOIOSTI

Using computational modeling to examine shifts towards extremist behaviors in European diaspora communities

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Naugle, Asmeret B.; Bernard, Michael L.

We created a simulation model to investigate potential links between the actions of violent extremist organizations (VEOs), people in the VEO’s home country, and diaspora communities from that country living in the West. We created this model using the DYMATICA framework, which uses a hybrid cognitive system dynamics modeling strategy to simulate behaviors based on psycho-social theory. Initial results of the model are given, focusing on increases to VEO funding and recruiting resulting from an invasion of the VEO’s home country. Western intervention, prejudice, and economic drivers are also considered.

More Details
TYPE Conference Poster YEAR 2017
DOIOSTIScopus

Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification

Tsao, Jeffrey Y.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Kleban, S.D.; Naugle, Asmeret B.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Swiler, Laura P.; Johnson, Curtis M.; Smith, Mark A.; Flanagan, Tatiana P.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Gabert, Kasimir G.; Lave, Matthew S.; Chen, Wei; Delaurentis, Daniel; Hubler, Alfred; Oberkampf, Bill

This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

More Details
TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2016
DOIOSTI

Simulating political and attack dynamics of the 2007 estonian cyber attacks

Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference

Naugle, Asmeret B.; Bernard, Michael L.; Lochard, Itamara

The Republic of Estonia faced a series of cyber attacks and riots in 2007 that seemed to be highly coordinated and politically motivated, causing short-lived but substantial impact to Estonia's cyber and economic systems. Short-Term harm from these hybrid incidents led to long-Term improvements and leadership by Estonia in the cyber arena. We created a causal model of these attacks to simulate their dynamics. The model uses the DYMATICA framework, a cognitive-system dynamics structure used to quantify and simulate elicited information from subject matter experts. This historical case study underscores how cyber warfare can be a major threat to modern society, and how it can be combined with information operations and kinetic effects to create further disruption. Given states' potential vulnerability to cyber attacks, a deeper understanding of how to analyze, prevent, defend, and utilize the aftermath of these for improvement to systems is critical, as is insight into the fundamental rationale of the outcomes.

More Details
TYPE Conference Poster YEAR 2016
DOIOSTIScopus
Results 26–50 of 95
Results 26–50 of 95