Cyberattacks against industrial control systems have increased over the last decade, making it more critical than ever for system owners to have the tools necessary to understand the cyber resilience of their systems. However, existing tools are often qualitative, subject matter expertise-driven, or highly generic, making thorough, data-driven cyber resilience analysis challenging. The ADROC project proposed to develop a platform to enable efficient, repeatable, data-driven cyber resilience analysis for cyber-physical systems. The approach consists of two phases of modeling: computationally efficient math modeling and high-fidelity emulations. The first phase allows for scenarios of low concern to be quickly filtered out, conserving resources available for analysis. The second phase supports more detailed scenario analysis, which is more predictive of real-world systems. Data extracted from experiments is used to calculate cyber resilience metrics. ADROC then ranks scenarios based on these metrics, enabling prioritization of system resources to improve cyber resilience.
Complex networks of information processing systems, or information supply chains, present challenges for performance analysis. We establish a mathematical setting, in which a process within an information supply chain can be analyzed in terms of the functionality of the system's components. Principles of this methodology are rigorously defended and induce a model for determining the reliability for the various products in these networks. Our model does not limit us from having cycles in the network, as long as the cycles do not contain negation. It is shown that our approach to reliability resolves the nonuniqueness caused by cycles in a probabilistic Boolean network. An iterative algorithm is given to find the reliability values of the model, using a process that can be fully automated. This automated method of discerning reliability is beneficial for systems managers. As a systems manager considers systems modification, such as the replacement of owned and maintained hardware systems with cloud computing resources, the need for comparative analysis of system reliability is paramount. The model is extended to handle conditional knowledge about the network, allowing one to make predictions of weaknesses in the system. Finally, to illustrate the model's flexibility over different forms, it is demonstrated on a system of components and subcomponents.