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Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description

Gearhart, Jared L.; Samberson, Jonell N.; Shettigar, Subhasini S.; Jungels, John J.; Welch, Kimberly M.; Jones, Dean A.

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

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Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description

Gearhart, Jared L.; Samberson, Jonell N.; Shettigar, Subhasini S.; Jungels, John J.; Welch, Kimberly M.; Jones, Dean A.

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

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Evaluating communications system performance effects at a system of systems level

Proceedings - IEEE Military Communications Conference MILCOM

Miner, Nadine E.; Van Leeuwen, Brian P.; Welch, Kimberly M.; Estill, Milford E.; Smith, Mark A.; Le, Hai D.; Lawton, Craig R.

The complexity of net-centric system of systems (SoS) being fielded today has the military leadership increasingly dependent on modeling and simulation (M&S) tools for evaluating performance. Several types of M&S tools are required to model different aspects of military systems, yet these tools often have different computational fidelities in terms of time and scale. Current approaches using direct information transfer between M&S tools, such as High Level Architecture (HLA) and MATREX, do not provide the mechanisms for disparate tools to make direct use of each other's information [1], [2]. Thus, many military SoS analyses assume perfect communications, an unrealistic assumption that leaves a gap for conducting more comprehensive analyses for large-scale, net-centric SoS problems. This research addresses this gap by developing general purpose methodologies to bridge the gap between diverse M&S tools resulting in a capability that enables military decision makers to evaluate comms system performance effects at a SoS level [3]. This paper discusses the methodology, including parameter selection, data generation, surrogate modeling and SoS simulation results. © 2012 IEEE.

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Using system-of-systems simulation modeling and analysis to measure energy KPP impacts for brigade combat team missions

Welch, Kimberly M.; Mader, Jessica C.; Lawton, Craig R.

The Department of Defense's (DoD) Energy Posture identified dependence of the US Military on fossil fuel energy as a key issue facing the military. Inefficient energy consumption leads to increased costs, effects operational performance and warfighter protection through large and vulnerable logistics support infrastructures. Military's use of energy is a critical national security problem. DoD's proposed metrics Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel and Energy Efficiency Key Performance Parameter (FBCF and Energy KPP) are a positive step to force energy use accountability onto Military programs. The ability to measure impacts of sustainment are required to fully measure Energy KPP. Sandia's work with Army demonstrates the capability to measure performance which includes energy constraint.

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12 Results
12 Results