Publications Details

Scenario Development in Safety Assessment

Kuhlman, Kristopher L.; Bartol, Jeroen; Carter, Alexander; Lommerzheim, Andree; Wolf, Jens

This paper summarizes the development of post-closure safety assessment for radioactive waste disposal from the point of view of scenarios, which occupy the key point in the process between FEPs and assessment using conceptual, mathematical, and numerical models. Scenarios are used in other fields for similar purposes, but they have a central role in safety assessment for radioactive waste disposal, given the large uncertainties in natural and engineered systems over long time periods. Repository design and assessments are built around a base scenario, which is usually built up from FEPs in a deductive bottom-up fashion. The alternative scenarios are often a perturbation of the base scenario, constructed in a top-down fashion around individual safety functions of key repository features. Despite differences between nations in how they implement scenarios, largely from regulatory differences, the concept of scenarios is beneficial and is used universally in development of deep geological repositories. The methodology has also seen some use outside the field radioactive waste disposal, but its wider adoption might be warranted.