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Qualitative methods for assessing risk

Mahn, Jeffrey A.

The Department of Energy's (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System [DOE, 1986]. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgement in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Currently, Sandia National Laboratories' Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) department has initiated a project to develop improved criteria for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance with the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative descriptions that permit: (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios and, (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to provide, in a qualitative manner, definitions that can be compared with the DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.