Publications Details

On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig; Jorgensen, Jennie; Denholm, Paul; Ho, Clifford K.; Armijo, Kenneth M.

Since the SunShot Vision Study (DOE 2012) was published, global deployment of concentrating solar power (CSP) has increased threefold to nearly 4,500 MW, with a similar threefold increase in operational capacity to 1,650 MW within the United States. Growth in U.S. CSP capacity has primarily been driven by policy support at the state and federal levels. State-driven renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), combined with a 30% federal investment tax credit (ITC) and federal loan guarantees, provided the opportunity for CSP developers to kick-start construction of CSP plants throughout the Southwest. Figure ES-1 demonstrates that deployment and private- and public-sector research and development have led to dramatic cost reductions that have placed CSP well on the path to reaching the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative goal of 6 cents/kWh by 2020. In comparing the estimated capital costs from the SunShot Vision Study and the current analysis, we find that parabolic trough solar-field costs have fallen more rapidly than predicted, although the drop in solar-field costs was offset by the additional costs of moving from a wet-cooled power block in 2010 to a more expensive dry-cooled power block in 2015. The predicted 2015 decline in tower costs was in line with expectations, primarily driven by reduced heliostat costs. Figure ES-1 shows the reduction in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both parabolic trough and tower systems, in addition to the projected 2020 SunShot target.