The following topics related to the treatment of cuttings, cavings and spallings releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (1) mathematical description of models. (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty, and (4) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that direct releases due to cuttings, cavings and spallings do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for cuttings, cavings and spallings releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194).
The following topics related to radionuclide transport in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented (1) mathematical description of models, (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty, and (4) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that no releases to the accessible environment take place due to radionuclide movement through the anhydrite marker beds, through the Dewey Lake Red Beds or directly to the surface, and also that the releases to the Culebra Dolomite are small. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for release to the Culebra Dolomite fall to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194).
The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented for two-phase flow the vicinity of the repository under undisturbed conditions. Techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, partial correlation analysis and rank transformation are used to investigate brine inflow, gas generation repository pressure, brine saturation and brine and gas outflow. Of the variables under study, repository pressure is potentially the most important due to its influence on spallings and direct brine releases, with the uncertainty in its value being dominated by the extent to which the microbial degradation of cellulose takes place, the rate at which the corrosion of steel takes place, and the amount of brine that drains from the surrounding disturbed rock zone into the repository.
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic disposal of transuranic waste. The construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for total radionuclide release from the WIPP to the accessible environment is described. The resultant CCDFs (1) combine releases due to cuttings and cavings, spallings, direct brine release, and long-term transport in flowing groundwater, (2) fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) standard 40 CFR 191 for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste, and (3) constitute an important component of the DOE's successful Compliance Certification Application to the EPA for the WIPP. Insights and perspectives gained in the performance assessment (PA) that led to these CCDFs are described, including the importance of (1) an iterative approach to PA, (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, (3) a clear conceptual model for the analysis, (4) the separation of stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, (5) quality assurance procedures, (6) early involvement of peer reviewers, regulators, and stake holders, (7) avoidance of conservative assumptions, and (8) adequate documentation.
The appropriate disposal of radioactive waste is a problem of great importance, wide-spread interest, and some controversy. As part of the solution to this problem the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the deep geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste generated by defense programs in the United States. The DOE submitted a Compliance Certification Application (CCA){sup 17} for the WIPP to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 1996, and a positive certification decision for the WIPP was issued by the EPA in May 1998. The first disposal of TRU waste in the WIPP took place in March 1999. The 1996 CCA for the WIPP was supported by an extensive performance assessment (PA) carried out by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), with this PA often designated the 1996 WIPP PA, the 1996 CCA PA, or simply the 1996 PA. In turn, the 1996 PA was supported by site characterization activities, experimental programs, model development programs, data development programs, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, a dedicated computational environment, a rigorous quality assurance (QA) program and a sequence of earlier PAs. Further, this PA was carried out in a regulatory environment defined by the following EPA regulations: Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for the Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes (40 CFR Part 191) and Criteria for the Certification and Re-Certification of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's Compliance with the 40 CFR Part 191 Disposal Regulations (40 CFR Part 194) The WIPP is the first licensed facility in the United States for the deep geologic disposal of radioactive waste. As a result, there is extensive interest in both the WIPP and the analyses that led to its certification by the EPA for the disposal of TRU waste. The WIPP program has produced large amounts of documentation both as part of the CCA itself and in large numbers of technical reports and supporting analysis documents. Although this information is publicly available, in practice its great quantity and availability at only specific locations (e.g., EPA Docket locations, the WIPP Records Centers in Albuquerque and Carlsbad) make obtaining a detailed understanding of the 1996 WIPP PA an arduous undertaking.
The following topics related to the representation of two-phase (gas and brine) flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are discussed: (1) system of nonlinear partial differential equations used to model two-phase flow, (2) incorporation of repository shafts into model (3) creep closure of repository. (4) interbed fracturing, (5) gas generation (6) capillary action in waste, (7) borebole model (8) numerical solution and (9) gas and brine flow across specified boundaries. Two-phase flow calculations are a central part of the 1996 WIPP PA and supply results that are subsequently used in the calculation of releases to the surface at the time of a drilling intrusion (i.e., spallings, direct brine releases) and long-term releases due to radionuclide transport by flowing groundwater.
The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of subjective uncertainty is discussed, including assignment of distributions, uncertain variables selected for inclusion in analysis, correlation control, sample size, statistical confidence on mean complementary cumulative distribution functions, generation of Latin hypercube samples, sensitivity analysis techniques, and scenarios involving stochastic and subjective uncertainty.
The conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. This structure involves three basic entities (EN1, EN2, EN3): (1) EN1, a probabilistic characterization of the likelihood of different futures occurring at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, (2) EN2, a procedure for estimating the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment associated with each of the possible futures that could occur at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, and (3) EN3, a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the parameters used in the definition of EN1 and EN2. In the formal development of the 1996 WIPP PA, EN1 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainly; EN2 is characterized by a function {line_integral} that corresponds to the models and associated computer programs used to estimate radionuclide releases; and EN3 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty. A high-level overview of the 1996 WIPP PA and references to additional sources of information are given in the context of (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}), {line_integral} and (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}).
The following topics related to radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (i) mathematical description of models: (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i,e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; and (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty. The presented results indicate that radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite does not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, no radionuclide transport to the boundary with the accessible environment was observed; thus, the associated CCDFs for comparison with the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) are degenerate in the sense of having a probability of zero of exceeding a release of zero.
The following topics related to the treatment of direct brine releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases: (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented analyses indicate that direct brine releases do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for direct brine releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194).
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), which is located in southeastern New Mexico, is being developed for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Waste disposal will take place in panels excavated in a bedded salt formation approximately 2000 ft (610 m) below the land surface. The BRAGFLO computer program which solves a system of nonlinear partial differential equations for two-phase flow, was used to investigate brine and gas flow patterns in the vicinity of the repository for the 1996 WIPP performance assessment (PA). The present study examines the implications of modeling assumptions used in conjunction with BRAGFLO in the 1996 WIPP PA that affect brine and gas flow patterns involving two waste regions in the repository (i.e., a single waste panel and the remaining nine waste panels), a disturbed rock zone (DRZ) that lies just above and below these two regions, and a borehole that penetrates the single waste panel and a brine pocket below this panel. The two waste regions are separated by a panel closure. The following insights were obtained from this study. First, the impediment to flow between the two waste regions provided by the panel closure model is reduced due to the permeable and areally extensive nature of the DRZ adopted in the 1996 WIPP PA, which results in the DRZ becoming an effective pathway for gas and brine movement around the panel closures and thus between the two waste regions. Brine and gas flow between the two waste regions via the DRZ causes pressures between the two to equilibrate rapidly, with the result that processes in the intruded waste panel are not isolated from the rest of the repository. Second, the connection between intruded and unintruded waste panels provided by the DRZ increases the time required for repository pressures to equilibrate with the overlying and/or underlying units subsequent to a drilling intrusion. Third, the large and areally extensive DRZ void volumes is a significant source of brine to the repository, which is consumed in the corrosion of iron and thus contributes to increased repository pressures. Fourth, the DRZ itself lowers repository pressures by providing storage for gas and access to additional gas storage in areas of the repository. Fifth, given the pathway that the DRZ provides for gas and brine to flow around the panel closures, isolation of the waste panels by the panel closures was not essential to compliance with the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's regulations in the 1996 WIPP PA.