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Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic disposal of transuranic waste. The construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for total radionuclide release from the WIPP to the accessible environment is described. The resultant CCDFs (1) combine releases due to cuttings and cavings, spallings, direct brine release, and long-term transport in flowing groundwater, (2) fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) standard 40 CFR 191 for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste, and (3) constitute an important component of the DOE's successful Compliance Certification Application to the EPA for the WIPP. Insights and perspectives gained in the performance assessment (PA) that led to these CCDFs are described, including the importance of (1) an iterative approach to PA, (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, (3) a clear conceptual model for the analysis, (4) the separation of stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, (5) quality assurance procedures, (6) early involvement of peer reviewers, regulators, and stake holders, (7) avoidance of conservative assumptions, and (8) adequate documentation.

The conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. This structure involves three basic entities (EN1, EN2, EN3): (1) EN1, a probabilistic characterization of the likelihood of different futures occurring at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, (2) EN2, a procedure for estimating the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment associated with each of the possible futures that could occur at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, and (3) EN3, a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the parameters used in the definition of EN1 and EN2. In the formal development of the 1996 WIPP PA, EN1 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainly; EN2 is characterized by a function {line_integral} that corresponds to the models and associated computer programs used to estimate radionuclide releases; and EN3 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty. A high-level overview of the 1996 WIPP PA and references to additional sources of information are given in the context of (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}), {line_integral} and (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}).

The conceptual and computational structure of a performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. Important parts of thk structure are @ maintenance of a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertain, with stochastic uncefinty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 Y regulatory period fiat applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from `the imprecision with which many of the quantities rquired in tie `hdysis are known, (ii) use of Latin hypercttbe sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncefirtty, (iii) use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncetinty, and OV) efficient use of tie necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to SUPPOII the analysis. The WIPP is under development by the U.S. Department of Ener~ (DOE) for the geologic (i.e., deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste, with the indicated PA supporting a ~Compliance Certification Application (CCA) by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 1996 for tie necessary certifications for the WIPP to begin operation. If certified, the WIPP will be the first operational faciliv in tie United States for the geologic disposal of ra&oactive waste.

Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs.

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste that has been generated at government defense installations in the United States. The WIPP is located in an area of low population density in southeastern New Mexico. Waste disposal will take place in excavated chambers in a bedded salt formation approximately 655 m below the land surface. This presentation describes a performance assessment (PA) carried out at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to support the Compliance Certification Application (CCA) made by the DOE to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October, 1996, for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. Based on the CCA supported by the PA described in this presentation, the EPA has issued a preliminary decision to certify the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. At present (April 1998), it appears likely that the WIPP will be in operation by the end of 1998.

The appropriate treatment of uncertainty is now widely recognized as an essential component of performance assessments (PAs) for complex systems. When viewed at a high-level, the uncertainty in such analyses can typically be partitioned into two types: (1) stochastic uncertainty, which arises because the system can behave in many different ways and is thus a property of the system itself, and (2) subjective uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge about quantities that are believed to have (or, at least, are assumed to have) fixed values and is thus a property of the analysts carrying out the study. The 1996 PA for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) carried out at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will be used to illustrate the treatment of these two types of uncertainty in a real analysis. In particular, this PA supported a compliance certification application (CCA) by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the geologic disposal of transuranic waste. Insights on the conceptual and computational structure of PAs for complex systems gained from these and other analyses are being incorporated into a new software system under development at SNL to facilitate the performance of analyses that maintain a separation between stochastic and subjective uncertainty.

The Subseabed Disposal Project (SDP) was part of an international program that investigated the feasibility of high-level radioactive waste disposal in the deep ocean sediments. This report briefly describes the seven-step iterative performance assessment procedures used in this study and presents representative results of the last iteration. The results of the performance are compared to interim standards developed for the SDP, to other conceptual repositories, and to related metrics. The attributes, limitations, uncertainties, and remaining tasks in the SDP feasibility phase are discussed.