Publications

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

The solution of ER/WM problems will rely on the use of expert judgments. These judgments should be able to withstand the same rigorous scrutiny as the decisions made to solve these problems. Therefore, those judgments that are likely to have a significant impact on the solution of ER/WM problems should be elicited and used in a formal manner. In this paper, we discuss the key areas of environmental management where expert judgments are expected to be crucial, as well as the process to formalize them. This process is a generic one and should only be construed as a roadmap; specific aspects of the process need to be tailored to address the problem at hand. By employing this process, the quality of the judgments is enhanced, and therefore, the likelihood that the solution of ER/WM problems will be a sound and defensible one is considerably increased.

Environmental management involves making decisions that will lead to the solution of environmental restoration and waste management (ER/WM) problems. Not only are ER/WM problems technologically challenging, but they must be dealt with under politically and emotionally charged conditions. Furthermore, these decisions must be made based on less than certain information. Therefore, environmental managers must consider the sources of uncertainty that will impact the results of the decision-making process, treat them in an explicit manner, and assess their impact on the decision. Consequently, the process must be a defensible, objective, and transparent one; otherwise the foundation for solving ER/WM problems will not be sufficiently solid to survive the criticisms that such solutions are likely to be subjected to. The use of risk assessment and decision analysis tools helps the environmental manager achieve this goal. It is also important that these decisions consider the array of risk-related issues associated with ER/WM problems, which include the risk to the health and safety of the public as well as other risks such as economic risk. The solution of ER/WM problems must obtain and maintain a proper balance between all these issues. It is also crucial that the multiple stakeholders having an interest in the solution of ER/WM problems be involved in the decision-making process.

This report summarizes the role of performance assessment in assessing compliance with the containment requirements in 40 CFR Part 191, the Environmental Protection Agency's Standard for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel, high-level and transuranic radioactive wastes. In 1986, Hunter et al. prepared a similar report (NUREG/CR-4510, SAND86-0121) which provided an overview of the approach to assess compliance with this standard. The present report builds on its predecessor in that it incorporates advances in performance assessment subsequent to Hunter et al.'s report. The main purpose of this report is to serve as a mechanism for transferring to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and its contractors the performance assessment methodologies (PAMs) developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for high-level radioactive waste repositories. The report starts with a discussion of the requirements in 40 CFR Part 191 and focuses on the containment requirements (Section 191.13). It follows with a discussion of the role of performance assessment and its use in regulatory compliance. The report concludes with a discussion of sources of uncertainty, treatment of uncertainties, and the construction of the complementary cumulative distribution function of summed normalized total releases to the accessible environment for one or more scenarios. Examples are presented of the demonstration of performance assessment methodologies for high-level waste disposal at two hypothetical sites. Consistent with the technology transfer objective, numerous references are made throughout this report to publications related to the SNL PAMs. As such, this is not a stand-alone report and the reader is encouraged to consult those references. 30 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs.