Publications

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Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is the world leader in the development of the detailed science underpinning the application of a probabilistic risk assessment methodology, referred to in this report as performance assessment (PA), for (1) understanding and forecasting the long-term behavior of a radioactive waste disposal system, (2) estimating the ability of the disposal system and its various components to isolate the waste, (3) developing regulations, (4) implementing programs to estimate the safety that the system can afford to individuals and to the environment, and (5) demonstrating compliance with the attendant regulatory requirements. This report documents the evolution of the SNL PA methodology from inception in the mid-1970s, summarizing major SNL PA applications including: the Subseabed Disposal Project PAs for high-level radioactive waste; the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant PAs for disposal of defense transuranic waste; the Yucca Mountain Project total system PAs for deep geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste; PAs for the Greater Confinement Borehole Disposal boreholes at the Nevada National Security Site; and PA evaluations for disposal of high-level wastes and Department of Energy spent nuclear fuels stored at Idaho National Laboratory. In addition, the report summarizes smaller PA programs for long-term cover systems implemented for the Monticello, Utah, mill-tailings repository; a PA for the SNL Mixed Waste Landfill in support of environmental restoration; PA support for radioactive waste management efforts in Egypt, Iraq, and Taiwan; and, most recently, PAs for analysis of alternative high-level radioactive waste disposal strategies including repositories deep borehole disposal and geologic repositories in shale and granite. Finally, this report summarizes the extension of the PA methodology for radioactive waste disposal toward development of an enhanced PA system for carbon sequestration and storage systems. These efforts have produced a generic PA methodology for the evaluation of waste management systems that has gained wide acceptance within the international community. This report documents how this methodology has been used as an effective management tool to evaluate different disposal designs and sites; inform development of regulatory requirements; identify, prioritize, and guide research aimed at reducing uncertainties for objective estimations of risk; and support safety assessments.

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The implementation of a project for the long-term disposal of nuclear waste (e.g., spent nuclear fuel, high-level radioactive waste) has proven to be one of the most challenging technical and political endeavors facing modern societies. The process of moving the project from site selection and characterization to licensing nuclear waste management facilities places shifting and, in some cases, conflicting demands on the community of technical experts engaged in providing the conceptual and quantitative bases for assessing facility safety and demonstrating regulatory compliance. At the same time, the accumulation and preservation of site-specific knowledge, data and modeling concerning the relevant components of the site is of urgent importance for the success of the overall process. To date, the evolving demands placed on these technical communities have received little systematic attention. The US efforts to site nuclear waste management facilities have faced significant challenges in developing and maintaining appropriate technical staffing, and based on recent policy shifts those challenges are likely to grow larger. This paper employs interviews with technical professionals from the US nuclear waste disposal program to analyze ways in which technical, social and political factors influence the performance of technical experts in lengthy, complex projects such as one for the long-term disposal of nuclear waste. The focus is on the interaction of the organizational and professional culture with evolving technical and professional demands. Recommendations are made for the design of sustainable technical organizations for performance of long-term risk analyses for nuclear waste management project.

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