Publications

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Natural gas is a clean fuel that will be the most important domestic energy resource for the first half the 21st centtuy. Ensuring a stable supply is essential for our national energy security. The research we have undertaken will maximize the extractable volume of gas while minimizing the environmental impact of surface disturbances associated with drilling and production. This report describes a methodology for comprehensive evaluation and modeling of the total gas system within a basin focusing on problematic horizontal fluid flow variability. This has been accomplished through extensive use of geophysical, core (rock sample) and outcrop data to interpret and predict directional flow and production trends. Side benefits include reduced environmental impact of drilling due to reduced number of required wells for resource extraction. These results have been accomplished through a cooperative and integrated systems approach involving industry, government, academia and a multi-organizational team within Sandia National Laboratories. Industry has provided essential in-kind support to this project in the forms of extensive core data, production data, maps, seismic data, production analyses, engineering studies, plus equipment and staff for obtaining geophysical data. This approach provides innovative ideas and technologies to bring new resources to market and to reduce the overall environmental impact of drilling. More importantly, the products of this research are not be location specific but can be extended to other areas of gas production throughout the Rocky Mountain area. Thus this project is designed to solve problems associated with natural gas production at developing sites, or at old sites under redevelopment.

Preliminary investigation areas (PIA) for a potential repository of high-level radioactive waste must be evaluated by NUMO with regard to a number of qualifying factors. One of these factors is related to earthquakes and fault activity. This study develops a spatial statistical assessment method that can be applied to the active faults in Japan to perform such screening evaluations. This analysis uses the distribution of seismicity near faults to define the width of the associated process zone. This concept is based on previous observations of aftershock earthquakes clustered near active faults and on the assumption that such seismic activity is indicative of fracturing and associated impacts on bedrock integrity. Preliminary analyses of aggregate data for all of Japan confirmed that the frequency of earthquakes is higher near active faults. Data used in the analysis were obtained from NUMO and consist of three primary sources: (1) active fault attributes compiled in a spreadsheet, (2) earthquake hypocenter data, and (3) active fault locations. Examination of these data revealed several limitations with regard to the ability to associate fault attributes from the spreadsheet to locations of individual fault trace segments. In particular, there was no direct link between attributes of the active faults in the spreadsheet and the active fault locations in the GIS database. In addition, the hypocenter location resolution in the pre-1983 data was less accurate than for later data. These pre-1983 hypocenters were eliminated from further analysis.

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A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings).

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology is being developed to assist designers, regulators, and involved stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report presents an example of the risk-based performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results of this study can be used to identify engineering and environmental parameters (e.g., liner properties, long-term precipitation, distribution coefficients) that require additional data to reduce uncertainty in the calculations and improve confidence in the model predictions. These results can also be used to evaluate alternative engineering designs and to identify parameters most important to long-term performance.

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The effective-porosity approach and the dual-porosity approach are examined as two alternative conceptual models of radionuclide migration in fractured media of the saturated zone at Yucca Mountain. Numerical simulations of onedimensional radionuclide transport are performed for the domain relevant to repository performance assessment using the two alternative conceptual approaches. Dual-porosity solute transport modeling produces similar results to effective-porosity modeling for fracture spacing of less than approximately 1 m and greater than about 200 m, which corresponds to values of effective porosity equal to the matrix porosity and the fracture porosity, respectively. For intermediate values of fracture spacing, the dual-porosity approach results in concentration breakthrough curves that differ significantly from the effectiveporosity approach and are characterized by earlier first arrival, greater apparent dispersion, and lower concentrations at later times. The effective-porosity approach, as implemented in recent performance assessment analyses of saturated zone transport at Yucca Mountain, is conservative compared to the dual-porosity approach in terms of both radionuclide concentrations and, generally, travel times.

Evaluation of groundwater travel time (GWTT) is required as part of the investigation of the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository site. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s GWTT regulation is considered to be a measure of the intrinsic ability of the site to contain radionuclide releases from the repository. The work reported here is the first step in a program to provide an estimate of GWTT at the Yucca Mountain site in support of the DOE`s Technical Site Suitability and as a component of a license application. Preliminary estimation of the GWTT distribution in the unsaturated zone was accomplished using a numerical model of the physical processes of groundwater flow in the fractured, porous medium of the bedrock. Based on prior investigations of groundwater flow at the site, fractures are thought to provide the fastest paths for groundwater flow; conditions that lead to flow in fractures were investigated and simulated. Uncertainty in the geologic interpretation of Yucca Mountain was incorporated through the use of geostatistical simulations, while variability of hydrogeologic parameters within each unit was accounted for by the random sampling of parameter probability density functions. The composite-porosity formulation of groundwater flow was employed to simulate flow in both the matrix and fracture domains. In this conceptualization, the occurrence of locally saturated conditions within the unsaturated zone is responsible for the initiation of fast-path flow through fractures. The results of the GWTT-94 study show that heterogeneity in the hydraulic properties of the model domain is an important factor in simulating local regions of high groundwater saturation. Capillary-pressure conditions at the surface boundary influence the extent of the local saturation simulated.