Publications

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited.

The next total-system performance-assessment (TSPA) analyses are designed to aid DOE in performing an ``investment analysis`` for Yucca Mountain. This TSPA must try to bound the uncertainties for several issues that will contribute to the decision whether the US should proceed with the development of a nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Because site-characterization experiments and data collection will continue for the foreseeable future, the next TSPA (called TSPA-IA) will again only be able to use partially developed models and partial data sets. In contrast to previous analyses however, TSPA-IA must address more specific questions to be of assistance to the investment-analysis deliberations.

Radionuclide releases due to drilling into the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear-waste repository have been evaluated as part of a recent total-system performance assessment. The probability that a drilling event intersects a waste package is a function of the sizes of the drill bit and the waste package, and the density of placement of the containers in the repository. The magnitude of the releases is modeled as a random function that also depends on the amount of decay the radionuclides have undergone. Four cases have been analyzed, representing the combinations of two waste-package designs (small-capacity, thin-wall, vertically emplaced; and large-capacity, thick-wall, horizontally emplaced) and two repository layouts (lower thermal power dissipation, low waste-package placement density; and higher thermal power dissipation, high waste-package placement density). The results show a fairly pronounced dependence on waste-package design and slight dependence on repository layout. Given the assumptions in the model, releases from the larger containers are 4-5 times greater than from the smaller packages.

Human Instrusion into the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was modeled in the Total-System Performance Assessment (``TSPA-91``) recently completed for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Office of the DOE. The scenario model assumed that the repository would be penetrated at random locations by a number of boreholes drilled using twentieth-century rotary drilling techniques.

A numerical approach for modeling unsaturated flow is developed for heterogeneous simulations of fractured tuff generated using a geostatistical method. Cross correlations of hydrologic properties and upscaling of moisture retention curves is discussed. The approach is demonstrated for a study of infiltration at Yucca Mountain.

This report describes an assessment of the long-term performance of a repository system that contains deeply buried highly radioactive waste; the system is assumed to be located at the potential site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study includes an identification of features, events, and processes that might affect the potential repository, a construction of scenarios based on this identification, a selection of models describing these scenarios (including abstraction of appropriate models from detailed models), a selection of probability distributions for the parameters in the models, a stochastic calculation of radionuclide releases for the scenarios, and a derivation of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for the releases. Releases and CCDFs are calculated for four categories of scenarios: aqueous flow (modeling primarily the existing conditions at the site, with allowances for climate change), gaseous flow, basaltic igneous activity, and human intrusion. The study shows that models of complex processes can be abstracted into more simplified representations that preserve the understanding of the processes and produce results consistent with those of more complex models.

The Nuclear Waste Repository Technology Department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is investigating the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a potential site for underground burial of nuclear wastes. One element of the investigations is to assess the potential long-term effects of groundwater flow on the integrity of a potential repository. A number of computer codes are being used to model groundwater flow through geologic media in which the potential repository would be located. These codes compute numerical solutions for problems that are usually analytically intractable. Consequently, independent confirmation of the correctness of the solution is often not possible. Code verification is a process that permits the determination of the numerical accuracy of codes by comparing the results of several numerical solutions for the same problem. The international nuclear waste research community uses benchmarking for intercomparisons that partially satisfy the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) definition of code verification. This report presents the results from the COVE-2A (Code Verification) project, which is a subset of the COVE project.

A Performance Assessment Calculational Exercise for 1990 (PACE-90) was coordinated by the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Office for a total-system performance-assessment problem. The primary objectives of the exercise were to develop performance-assessment computational capabilities of the Yucca Mountain Project participates and to aid in identifying critical elements and processes associated with the calculation. The problem defined for PACE-90 was simulation of a ``nominal case`` groundwater flow and transport of a selected group of radionuclides through a portion of Yucca Mountain. Both 1-D and 2-D calculations were run for a modeling period of 100,000 years. The nuclides used, {sup 99}Tc, {sup 135}Cs, {sup 129}I, and {sup 237}Np, were representative of ``classes`` of long-lived nuclides expected to be present in the waste inventory. Movement of the radionuclides was simulated through a detailed hydrostratigraphy developed from Yucca Mountain data specifically for this exercise. The results showed that, for the specified conditions with the conceptual models used in the problem, no radioactive contamination reached the water table, 230 m below the repository. However, due to the unavailability of sufficient site-specific data, the results of this exercise cannot be considered a comprehensive total-system- performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain site as a high-level- waste repository. 46 refs., 94 figs., 19 tabs.