Publications

Physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

The formation of a stress corrosion crack (SCC) in the canister wall of a dry cask storage system (DCSS) has been identified as a potential issue for the long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel. The presence of an SCC in a storage system could represent a through-wall flow path from the canister interior to the environment. Modern, vertical DCSSs are of particular interest due to the commercial practice of using more significant backfill pressures in the canister, up to approximately 800 kPa. This pressure differential offers a relatively high driving potential for blowdown of any particulates that might be present in the canister. In this study, the rates of gas flow and aerosol transmission of a spent fuel surrogate through an engineered microchannel with dimensions representative of an SCC were evaluated experimentally using coupled mass flow and aerosol analyzers. The microchannel was formed by mating two gage blocks with a linearly tapering slot orifice nominally 13 μm (0.005 in.) tall on the upstream side and 25 μm (0.0010 in.) tall on the downstream side. The orifice is 12.7 mm (0.500 in.) wide by 8.86 mm (0.349 in.) long (flow length). Surrogate aerosols of cerium oxide, CeO₂, were seeded and mixed with either helium or air inside a pressurized tank. The aerosol characteristics were measured immediately upstream and downstream of the simulated SCC at elevated and ambient pressures, respectively. These data sets are intended to add to previous testing that characterized SCCs under well-controlled boundary conditions through the inclusion of testing improvements that establish initial conditions in a more consistent way. These ongoing testing efforts are focused on understanding the evolution in both size and quantity of a hypothetical release of aerosolized spent fuel particles from failed fuel to the canister interior and ultimately through an SCC.

Abstract not provided.