Publications

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

This paper compares the cost and effectiveness of several potential options that may be used to monitor silo-based ballistic missiles. Silo door monitoring can be used to verify that warheads removed to deactivate or download silo-based ballistic missiles have not been replaced. A precedent for monitoring warhead replacement using reentry vehicle on site inspections (RV-OSIs) and using satellites has been established by START-I and START-II. However, other monitoring options have the potential to be less expensive and more effective. Three options are the most promising if high verification confidence is desired: random monitoring using door sensors; random monitoring using manned or unmanned aircraft; and continuous remote monitoring using unattended door sensors.

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia`s Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, top-level, modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM`s unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection) and location accuracy of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system`s performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. This report describes version 1.2 of IVSEM.

This report describes electric utility capacity expansion and energy production models developed for energy policy analysis. The models use the same principles (life cycle cost minimization, least operating cost dispatching, and incorporation of outages and reserve margin) as comprehensive utility capacity planning tools, but are faster and simpler. The models were not designed for detailed utility capacity planning, but they can be used to accurately project trends on a regional level. Because they use the same principles as comprehensive utility capacity expansion planning tools, the models are more realistic than utility modules used in present policy analysis tools. They can be used to help forecast the effects energy policy options will have on future utility power generation capacity expansion trends and to help formulate a sound national energy strategy. The models make renewable energy source competition realistic by giving proper value to intermittent renewable and energy storage technologies, and by competing renewables against each other as well as against conventional technologies.

This paper describes the results of an International Monitoring System synergy study using Sandia National Laboratory`s IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model). The study compares individual subsystem performance (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) with integrated system performance. The integrated system exhibits synergy because different sensor technologies cover different locations; thus, the integrated system covers more locations than can any individual subsystem. Energy and system performance can be further enhanced by allowing mixed technology detection and location.

This economic analysis compares human and robotic TRUPACT unloading at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Robots speed up the unloading process, reduce human labor requirements, and reduce human exposure to radiation. The analysis shows that benefit/cost ratios are greater than one for most cases using government economic parameters. This suggests that robots are an attractive option for the TRUPACT application, from a government perspective. Rates of return on capital investment are below 15% for most cases using private economic parameters. Thus, robots are not an attractive option for this application, from a private enterprise perspective.

This report describes reference concepts for a hydrogen-oxygen combustion, turboalternator power system that supplies power during battle engagement to a space-based, ballistic missile defense platform. All of the concepts are open''; that is, they exhaust hydrogen or a mixture of hydrogen and water vapor into space. We considered the situation where hydrogen is presumed to be free to the power system because it is also needed to cool the platform's weapon and the situation where hydrogen is not free and its mass must be added to that of the power system. We also considered the situation where water vapor is an acceptable exhaust and the situation where it is not. The combination of these two sets of situations required four different power generation systems, and this report describes each, suggests parameter values, and estimates masses for each of the four. These reference concepts are expected to serve as a baseline'' to which other types of power systems can be compared, and they are expected to help guide technology development efforts in that they suggest parameter value ranges that will lead to optimum system designs. 7 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs.