Publications

The research described in this report developed the theoretical and conceptual framework for understanding, recognizing, and anticipating the origins, dynamic mechanisms, perceptions, and social structures of Islamic social reform movements in the Muslim homeland and in diaspora communities. This research has revealed valuable insights into the dynamic mechanisms associated with reform movements and, as such, offers the potential to provide indications and warnings of impending violence. This study produced the following significant findings: (1) A framework for understanding Islamic radicalization in the context of Social Movement Theory was developed and implemented. This framework provides a causal structure for the interrelationships among the myriad features of a social movement. (2) The degree to which movement-related activity shows early diffusion across multiple social contexts is a powerful distinguisher of successful and unsuccessful social movements. Indeed, this measurable appears to have significantly more predictive power than volume of such activity and also more power than various system intrinsics. (3) Significant social movements can occur only if both the intra-context 'infectivity' of the movement exceeds a certain threshold and the inter-context interactions associated with the movement occur with a frequency that is larger than another threshold. Note that this is reminiscent of, and significantly extends, well-known results for epidemic thresholds in disease propagation models. (4) More in-depth content analysis of blogs through the lens of Argumentation Theory has the potential to reveal new insights into radicalization in the context of Social Movement Theory. This connection has the potential to be of value from two important perspectives - first, this connection has the potential to provide more in depth insights into the forces underlying the emergence of radical behavior and second, this connection may provide insights into how to use the blogosphere to influence the emergent dialog to effectively impact the resulting actions taken by the potential radicals. The authors of this report recognize that Islamic communities are not the only source of radicalism; indeed many other groups, religious and otherwise, have used and continue to use, radicalism to achieve their ends. Further, the authors also recognize that not all Muslims use, or condone the use of, radical behavior. Indeed, only a very small segment of the Muslim communities throughout the world use and/or support such behavior. Nevertheless, the focus of this research is, indeed, on understanding, recognizing, and anticipating the origins, dynamic mechanisms, perceptions, and social structures of Islamic radicalism.

Abstract not provided.

The Landing Craft Air Cushion is a high-speed, over-the-beach, fully amphibious landing craft capable of carrying a 60-75 ton payload. The LCAC fleet can serve to transport weapons systems, equipment, cargo and personnel from ship to shore and across the beach. This transport system is an integral part of our military arsenal and, as such, its readiness is an important consideration for our national security. Further, the best way to expend financial resources that have been allocated to maintain this fleet is a critical Issue. There is a clear coupling between the measure of Fleet Readiness as defined by the customer for this project and the information that is provided by Sandia's ProOpta methodology. Further, there is a richness in the data that provides even more value to the analyst. This report provides an analytic framework for understanding the connection between Fleet Readiness and the output provided by Sandia's ProOpta software. Further, this report highlights valuable information that can also be made available using the ProOpta output and concepts from basic probability theory. Finally, enabling assumptions along with areas that warrant consideration for further study are identified.

This report provides an overview of the results of the Vital the Nicaraguan Water Resources Management Initiative, Issues process as implemented for a collaborative effort between the Nicaraguan Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and Sandia National Laboratories. This initiative is being developed to assist in the development of an efficient and sustainable water resources management system for Nicamgua. The Vital Issues process was used to provide information for developing a project that will develop and implement an advanced information system for managing Nicaragua's water resources. Three Vital Issues panel meetings were convened to 1) develop a mission statement and evaluation criteria for identifying and ranking the issues vital to water resources management in Nicaragua 2) define and rank the vital issues; and 3) identify a preliminary list of information needed to address the vital issues. The selection of panelists from the four basic institutional perspectives- government, industiy, academe, and citizens' groups (through nongovernmental organizations (NGOs))-ensured a high level of stakeholder representation on the panels. The already existing need for a water resource management information system has been magnified in the aftemnath of Hurricane Mitch. This information system would be beneficial for an early warning system in emergencies, and the modeling and simulation capabilities of the system would allow for advanced planning. Additionally, the outreach program will provide education to help Nicaraguan improve their water hygiene practices.

This report provides an overview of the results of the Vital Issues process as implemented for the Senegal Water Resources Management Initiative, a collaborative effort between the Senegalese Ministry of Water Resources and Sandia National Laboratories. This Initiative is being developed to assist in the development of an efficient and sustainable water resources management system for Senegal. The Vital Issues process was used to provide information for the development of a proposal that will recommend actions to address the key management issues and establish a state-of-the-art decision support system (DSS) for managing Senegal`s water resources. Three Vital Issues panel meetings were convened to (1) develop a goal statement and criteria for identifying and ranking the issues vital to water resources management in Senegal; (2) define and rank the issues, and (3) identify and prioritize a preliminary list of information needed to address the vital issues. The selection of panelists from the four basic institutional perspectives (government, industry, academe, and citizens` interest groups) ensured a high level of stakeholder representation on the panels.

This report presents the preliminary results of an analysis of China`s water resources, part of an effort undertaken by the National Intelligence Council Medea scientists to improve the understanding of future food production and consumption in the People`s Republic of China. A dynamic water model was developed to simulate the hydrological budgetary processes in five river drainage basins located in northeastern, central, and southern China: the Chang Jiang (Yangtse River), Huanghe (Yellow River), Haihe, Huaihe, and Liaohe. The model was designed to assess the effects of changes in urban, industrial, and agricultural water use requirements on the availability of water in each basin and to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in China through the year 2025. The model imposes a sustainable yield constraint, that is, groundwater extraction is not allowed to exceed the sustainable yield; if the available water does not meet the total water use requirements, a deficit results. An agronomic model was also developed to generate projections of the water required to service China`s agricultural sector and compare China`s projected grain production with projected grain consumption requirements to estimate any grain surplus and/or deficit. In future refinements, the agronomic model will interface directly with the water model to provide for the exchange of information on projected water use requirements and available water. The preliminary results indicate that the Chang Jiang basin will have a substantial surplus of water through 2025 and that the Haihe basin is in an ongoing situation. The agricultural water use requirements based on grain production indicate that an agricultural water deficit in the Haihe basin begins before the onset of the modeling period (1980) and steadily worsens through 2025. This assumption is confirmed by reports that groundwater mining is already under way in the most intensely cultivated and populated areas of northern China.

Quality of life as a concept has been used in many ways in the public policy arena. It can be used in summative evaluations to assess the impacts of policies or programs. Alternatively, it can be applied to formative evaluations to provide input to the formation of new policies. In short, it provides the context for the understanding needed to evaluate the results of choices that have been made in the public policy arena, or the potential of choices yet to be made. In either case, the public policy question revolves around the positive or negative impact the choice will have on quality of life, and the magnitude of that impact. This discussion will develop a conceptual framework that proposes that an assessment of quality of life is based on a comparison of expectations with experience. The framework defines four basic components from which these expectations arise: natural conditions, social conditions, the body, and the mind. Each one of these components is generally described, and associated with a general policy or rhetorical category which gives it its policy vocabulary--environmental quality, economic well-being, human health, and self-fulfillment.

The Vital Issues Process, developed by the Sandia National Laboratories Strategic Technologies Department, was utilized by the Health Care Task Force Advisory Group to apply structure to their policy deliberations. By convening three expert panels, an overarching goal for the New Mexico health care system, seven desired outcomes, nine policy options, and 17 action items were developed for the New Mexico health care system. Three broadly stated evaluation criteria were articulated and used to produce relative rankings of the desired outcomes and policy options for preventive care and information systems. Reports summarizing the policy deliberations were submitted for consideration by the Health Care Task Force, a Joint Interim Committee of the New Mexico Legislature, charged with facilitating the development and implementation of a comprehensive health care delivery system for New Mexico. The Task Force reported its findings and recommendations to the Second Session of the 41st New Mexico State Legislature in January 1994.

The Vital Issues process (VIp) is a strategic planning tool initially developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the Office of Foreign Intelligence (OFI)* of the US Department of Energy (DOE). It was further developed and refined through its application to a variety of strategic purposes for a range of public and semipublic organizations. The VIp provides a structured mechanism for assisting organizations in accomplishing specified objectives by identifying and prioritizing a portfolio of strategic issues, programmatic areas, or responses to a specified problem. It employs day-long panel meetings in a specified format to elicit a broad range of perspectives on a particular issue in a nonconfrontational manner and to facilitate the interaction and synthesis of diverse viewpoints on a specific topic. The VIp is unique in its incorporation of two primary approaches in each panel session: a qualitative or transactional segment, which entails the synthesis of the alternatives through negotiations or discussion, and a quantitative or net benefit maximization segment, an analytical approach, which involves prioritization of the alternatives using pairwise comparisons. This combination of facilitated group discussion and quantitative ranking provides input to strategic management decisions in the form of stakeholder-defined and -prioritized items as well as information on potential barriers to the implementation of policies and programs. This is the final volume in the series Identifying Vital Issues: New Intelligence Strategies for a New World, a three-volume set that gives an accounting of the VIp as implemented for OFI. This volume provides an in-depth description of the methodology used in the VIp.

Natural disasters cause billions of dollars of damage and thousands Of deaths globally each year. While the magnitude is clear, the exact costs (in damage and fatalities) are difficult to clearly identify. This document reports on the results of a survey of data on the costs associated with significant natural disasters. There is an impressive amount of work and effort going into natural disaster research, mitigation, and relief. However, despite this effort, there are surprisingly few consistent and reliable data available regarding the effects of natural disasters. Even lacking consistent and complete data, it is clear that the damage and fatalities from natural disasters are increasing, both in the United States, and globally. Projections using the available data suggest that, in the United States alone, the costs of natural disasters between 1995 and 2010 will be in the range of $90 billion (94$) and 5000 lives.

The possibility of long-term smoke emissions (from 1 to 3 years) from burning Kuwaiti oil wells has increased concerns regarding personnel exposure and acute and chronic health effects. This document, which is the result of work done in the spring of 1991, addresses those concerns. Part 1 of this document describes follow-on efforts to the pre-war modeling studies of the toxicological hazards to exposed Kuwaiti populations. Part 2 describes a pollutant monitoring program that could be carried out in the summer of 1991 to measure real-time exposure levels and to obtain more detailed information about the pollutant source terms and meteorological conditions that are necessary inputs to model computations.