Publications

The policy debate that has surrounded the national laboratories of the Department of Energy since the end of the Cold War has been very confusing. Initially, with the passage of the National Competitiveness Technology Transfer Act of 1989, the laboratories were encouraged to form cooperative arrangements with industry to maintain their technology base and give a boost for U.S. industrial competitiveness. But in the 104th Congress, technology transfer programs were severely constrained.

Inclusion of renewable energy sources in national and international energy strategies is a key component of a viable global energy future. The global energy balance is going to shift radically in the near future brought about by significant increases in population in China and India, and increases in the energy intensity of developing countries. To better understand the consequences of such global shifts in energy requirements and to develop appropriate energy strategies to respond to these shifts, we need to look at the factors driving choices among supply options by geopolitical consumers and the impact these factors can have on the future energy mix.

Over the next several decades, it is expected that the use of renewable energy technologies will greatly expand as these technologies mature, as the cost of conventional energy supply increases, and as the environmental impact of fossil fuel usage is better understood. A critical question is whether the impact of renewables, in terms of displaced fossil fuel use and reduced environmental effects, can be significant. Certainly, public policy will have dramatic effects on this question. Given a positive policy environment, renewables have the potential to displace a significant fraction of projected energy use within 30-40 years. For the United States, renewables could contribute as much as 25-55 exajoules of energy annually by the year 2030, or 15-35{percent} of the projected total US energy consumption. 12 refs., 6 figs.