Publications Details

Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

Probabilistic forecasting techniques can be used in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. An example application of probabilistic forecasting is presented and described.