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Synthetic Multivariate Models to Accommodate Unmodeled Interfering Components During Quantitative Spectral Analyses

Haaland, David M.

The analysis precision of any multivariate calibration method will be severely degraded if unmodeled sources of spectral variation are present in the unknown sample spectra. This paper describes a synthetic method for correcting for the errors generated by the presence of unmodeled components or other sources of unmodeled spectral variation. If the spectral shape of the unmodeled component can be obtained and mathematically added to the original calibration spectra, then a new synthetic multivariate calibration model can be generated to accommodate the presence of the unmodeled source of spectral variation. This new method is demonstrated for the presence of unmodeled temperature variations in the unknown sample spectra of dilute aqueous solutions of urea, creatinine, and NaCl. When constant-temperature PLS models are applied to spectra of samples of variable temperature, the standard errors of prediction (SEP) are approximately an order of magnitude higher than that of the original cross-validated SEPs of the constant-temperature partial least squares models. Synthetic models using the classical least squares estimates of temperature from pure water or variable-temperature mixture sample spectra reduce the errors significantly for the variable temperature samples. Spectrometer drift adds additional error to the analyte determinations, but a method is demonstrated that can minimize the effect of drift on prediction errors through the measurement of the spectra of a small subset of samples during both calibration and prediction. In addition, sample temperature can be predicted with high precision with this new synthetic model without the need to recalibrate using actual variable-temperature sample data. The synthetic methods eliminate the need for expensive generation of new calibration samples and collection of their spectra. The methods are quite general and can be applied using any known source of spectral variation and can be used with any multivariate calibration method.