Publications Details

Stochastic PV performance/reliability model : preview of alpha version

Problem Statement: (1) Uncertainties in PV system performance and reliability impact business decisions - Project cost and financing estimates, Pricing service contracts and guarantees, Developing deployment and O&M strategies; (2) Understanding and reducing these uncertainties will help make the PV industry more competitive (3) Performance has typically been estimated without much attention to reliability of components; and (4) Tools are needed to assess all inputs to the value proposition (e.g., LCOE, cash flow, reputation, etc.). Goals and objectives are: (1) Develop a stochastic simulation model (in GoldSim) that can represent PV system performance as a function of system design, weather, reliability, and O&M policies; (2) Evaluate performance for an example system to quantify sources of uncertainty and identify dominant parameters via a sensitivity study; and (3) Example System - 1 inverter, 225 kW DC Array latitude tilt (90 strings of 12 modules {l_brace}1080 modules{r_brace}), Weather from Tucumcari, NM (TMY2 with annual uncertainty).